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The Economist Magazine’s Critical Analysis of President Trump

The influential Economist magazine from London recently has published three critical articles about President Donald Trump: (1) “The would-be king;” (2) “Trump and the world: Europe’s Worst Nightmare;” and (3) “Trade: At the president’s pleasure.” [1]

Here are some highlights (lowlights?) of those articles.

“The world-be king”

“Mr. Trump’s every act demonstrates his belief that power is vested in him personally, and affirms he is bent on amassing more. Ignoring the legislature, he is governing by decree. . . Because some of . . .[his] orders are, on the face of it, brazenly unconstitutional, he also appears to be seeking a trial of strength with the judiciary. . . . Government departments are being thrown into confusion, partly to demonstrate Mr. Trump’s authority over them. . . . In foreign affairs too, Mr. Trump chafes to be rid of the obligations he inherited.. .. [Although] he has pledged to abide by legal rulings, [he] then quoted Napoleon, saying ‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”

“Trump and the world: Europe’s worst nightmare”

“The past week has been the bleakest in Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Ukraine is being sold out, Russia is being rehabilitated and, under Donald Trump, America can no longer be counted on to come to Europe’s aid in wartime.. . . The old world needs a crash course on how to wield hard power in a lawless world or fall victim to the new world disorder. . . . Mr. Trump’s shakedown of Europe and pandering to Russia have cast doubt on America’s commitment to defend NATO. . . .The problem is that if Europe comes under Russian attack and seeks America’s help, Mr. Trump’s first and deepest instinct will be to ask what is in it for him.. . In the medium term a huge [European] defense mobilization [is necessary]. . . . Paying for this rearmament will take a fiscal revolution. . . . To raise [economic] growth, Europe must press ahead with obvious but endlessly delayed reforms.”

“Trade: At the president’s pleasure”

“What happens when you ditch the principles that underpinned global trade for three-quarters of a century. Donald Trump hopes to find out. . . . A stable multilateral trade system which has, for all its flaws, fostered miraculous rises in global prosperity gives way to arbitrary judgments made in the Oval Office.”

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[1] The Economist (Feb. 22, 2025); “The would-be king” (p. 11), “Trump and the world: Europe’s worst nightmare” (p. 12) and “Trade: At the president’s pleasure” (p. 13).

How Trump Sees the World

“It’s clear that the concept of a ‘rules-based international order’ is anathema to Mr. Trump. After all, following rules may force you to do something you don’t want to and may impose short-term costs on your country. Mr. Trump seems to think the current rules don’t promote America’s long-term interests.”

“His aim, it seems, is to maximize his freedom of action at all times. This explains why he is inclined to see alliances as burdens. Bringing your allies along with you takes time, patience and compromise. It constrains your will. Why bother? Better to deal one-on-one with friend and foe alike.”

“Binding commitments also constrain the will. Mr. Trump apparently believes deals should be revisable when they become inconvenient. You can negotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement with your southern and northern neighbors and then slap huge tariffs on them. That was then, this is now.”

“Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is amoral—a relentless pursuit of self-interest. Appeals to principles leave him cold, as do international relationships based on ‘shared values.’ His instincts leave him unable to understand why so many people on both sides of the Atlantic are committed to an alliance of Western democracies against the rising tide of antidemocratic forces.”

“Indeed, it’s not clear that Mr. Trump prefers democracy to autocracy. He has praised autocratic leaders—Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, even Kim Jong Un. He admires their strength and envies their ability to act without pesky legislators and critical reporters.”

“Strength and weakness replace right and wrong in Mr. Trump’s lexicon. What matters most is leverage. If you have it, use it to the hilt. If you don’t, you must settle for what you can get. The merits of your position don’t matter.”

“Speaking of strength: Mr. Trump evidently believes that there are three great powers—China, Russia and the U.S.—and that establishing satisfactory relations among them takes priority over collateral damage to smaller countries. The idea is to return to ‘spheres of influence’: Ukraine and the ‘near abroad’ for Russia, and Panama, Canada and Greenland for the U.S.”

“And what for China? In the ‘great powers’ context, it’s not surprising that Elbridge Colby, Mr. Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Journal that although the U.S. should be prepared to defend Taiwan, the island ‘isn’t itself of existential importance to America.’ And as Chinese pressure on the Philippines intensifies, I wonder whether Mr. Trump will honor America’s longstanding mutual-defense treaty with Manila.”

“What is of existential importance, it seems, is economics. Mr. Trump’s view is that just about every country is ‘ripping us off’ in trade. The size of the trade deficit is proof; never mind what economists say causes it. Our allies are ripping us off in defense as well. Helping them defend themselves, he thinks, costs the U.S. without attendant benefits. Mr. Trump knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.”

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Galston, The Zelensky Spat Shows Us How Trump Sees the World, W.S.J. (Mar. 4, 2025).

Why Are Cuba and the U.S. Still Mired in the Cold War?

This is the title of a lengthy article in Foreign Policy by William H. LeoGrande, professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C. and a respected commentator on the important topic of this bilateral relation.[1]

Obama’s Normalization Effort

The starting point for his analysis is a review of the 10^th anniversary of President Obama’s public announcement of his Administration’s start of normalization of relations with Cuba. Highlights of that effort were “ending the U.S. designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, reopening of both countries embassies, President Obama’s visit to Cuba, loosening of restrictions on U.S. citizens travel to the island and resumption of U.S. airlines travel to Cuba, resulting increases in U.S. travel to the island, establishing a bilateral commission to oversee the work of 18 diplomatic working groups; and Obama’s prediction of an end to the U.S. embargo” (that did not happen). Nevertheless, this effort at normalization “was immensely popular both at home and abroad. Pope Francis blessed it, the Cuban people loved it, and the general U.S. public supported it, including more than half of Cuban Americans.”[2]

Trump’s First Term’s Return to Hostile Relations

LeoGrande then notes that in his first term, Trump adopted new regulations to restrict U.S. travel to the island, impose limits on remittances, block business with Cuban companies managed by its military, disband bilateral working groups on various issues plus returned to Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.[3]

Biden’s Failure To Return to Obama’s Normalization

Leo Grande then had these brief remarks about President Biden. “During [Biden’s] campaign, he criticized the impact of Trump’s policies on Cuban families and promised to restore Obama’s policy of normalization ‘in large part.’ But he never did. Biden did adopt some ‘half-measures.’ Most importantly, he left Cuba on the lise of state sponsors of terrorism. The result has been an incoherent hybrid policy . . .and there is little indication that he will use his lame-duck period to finally keep the Cuba-policy promises he made in 2020.” [4]

Trump Redux

Leo Grande says, “Trump’s return to the White House could presage a return to maximum pressure, especially with Rubio as secretary of states and Rep. Mike Waltz as national security advisor. Rubio and Republican Cuban Americans on the Hill will surely push for it, just as they did in Trump’s first term. They will point out that 70 percent of Cuban Americans in Florida voted for him and that a recent Florida International University (FIU) poll found 72 percent of Cuban American respondents support maximum pressure to promote regime change.” [5]

“But resuming maximum pressure would stir a political hornet’s nest. After eight years of intense sanctions exacerbated by the Cuban government’s policy mistakes, the island is suffering an unprecedented economic and social crisis. Life is so hard and prospects for the future are so grim that more than a million Cubans—9 percent of the population—emigrated in the past three years. Three-quarters of them have come to the United States, 690,000 arrived undocumented at the southern border, another 100,000 admitted under Biden’s humanitarian parole program. If Trump adopts policies that deepen Cuba’s crisis, the new surge of migrants could dwarf these numbers, which would seriously complicate his plans to end irregular immigration.”

Conclusion

LeoGrande concludes his article with the following words:

“[T]he key lesson from the fleeting rapprochement that began 10 years ago on Dec. 17, 2014, is that engagement benefits both countries and that bold and determined leaders can make it happen. The enthusiasm with which Cubans, Americans, and people around the world embraced the prospect of peace between the United States and Cuba underscored just how long overdue reconciliation was. Both Obama and Raúl Castro spoke of rebuilding bridges between their countries, and both acknowledged it would be hard to put decades of animosity to rest. It has proven harder than anyone expected in the halcyon days following Dec. 17, but the ties that bind Cuba and the United States—ties of family, commerce, culture, and the shared interests that come from living next door to one another—will eventually overcome the resistance of even the most recalcitrant politicians. As Henry Kissinger recognized half a century ago, ‘perpetual antagonism’ between the United States and Cuba need not be normal.’”

“Cuban Americans are not likely to support closing the southern border to Cuban migrants, and immigration law prohibits discrimination on the basis of nationality. If the administration tries to make an exception for Cubans, the policy will certainly be challenged in court. Trump’s plans to deport undocumented immigrants could face even bigger problems. Tearing recent Cuban migrants from their families, many of whom paid traffickers thousands of dollars to bring their relatives here, would cause a political firestorm in south Florida. The FIU poll found that 72 percent of respondents support humanitarian parole for Cuban migrants and that half are planning to bring relatives still in Cuba to the United States in the future.”

“In foreign policy, tougher Cuba sanctions would complicate relations with Mexico. President Claudia Sheinbaum is supporting Cuba by sending it cheap oil. In 2023, her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, warned the Biden administration that Cuban migration spurred by U.S. sanctions was causing problems for Mexico and complicating cooperation with Washington on migration issues. Cooperation with Mexico, as Trump learned in his first term, is indispensable for limiting undocumented migration and narcotics trafficking across the southern border, which are all top priorities for him.”

“Escalating sanctions on Cuba could also complicate Trump’s desire to improve relations with Russia. Moscow has grown closer with Havana in recent years, expanding relations beyond economic cooperation into a ‘strategic partnership,’ as the two countries describe it. Cuba has defended Russia’s rationale for its invasion of Ukraine, making Havana a valuable ally in the Global South. And Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly values having an outpost in the United States “near abroad,” if only as a geopolitical thorn in Washington’s side. In short, Russia has a clear interest in the survival of the Cuban regime.”

“I f sanctions succeed in destabilizing Cuba to the point that the state fails and social violence erupts, the pressure from Cuban Americans for U.S. military intervention will be immense. Cuban American elected officials demanded intervention in July 2021, in response to the Cuban government’s suppression of nationwide demonstrations, even though the largely peaceful protests only lasted a few days. U.S. intervention would poison relations with Latin America for a generation.”

“But the key lesson from the fleeting rapprochement that began 10 years ago on Dec. 17, 2014, is that engagement benefits both countries and that bold and determined leaders can make it happen. The enthusiasm with which Cubans, Americans, and people around the world embraced the prospect of peace between the United States and Cuba underscored just how long overdue reconciliation was. Both Obama and Raúl Castro spoke of rebuilding bridges between their countries, and both acknowledged it would be hard to put decades of animosity to rest. It has proven harder than anyone expected in the halcyon days following Dec. 17, but the ties that bind Cuba and the United States—ties of family, commerce, culture, and the shared interests that come from living next door to one another—will eventually overcome the resistance of even the most recalcitrant politicians. As Henry Kissinger recognized half a century ago, “perpetual antagonism” between the United States and Cuba need not be normal.”

Reactions

This blog recently has been publishing posts about the horrible times currently being suffered in Cuba and hence the need for the U.S. to return to the normalization efforts of President Obama/ [6]

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[1] Leo Grande, Why Are Cuba and the U.S. Still Mired in the Cold War?, Foreign Policy (Dec. 12, 2024).

[2] See the posts listed in the following sections of List of Posts to dwkcommentaries—Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20]: U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2014; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2015; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2016; and U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2017.

[3] See the posts listed in the following sections of that List of Posts: U.S. (Trump) & Cuba Relations, 2016-17; and U.S. (Trump) and Cuba, 2018.

[4] I concur in LeoGrande’s analysis and conclusion.

[5] Another concurrence.

[6] E.g., U.S. Congressmen Ask President Biden To Provide Sanctions Relief and Other Aid to Cuba (Nov. 20, 2024); Cuba’s Unstoppable Spiral of Misery, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 4, 2024);Diario de Cuba’s Editorial on Its 15^th Anniversary, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 5, 2024); Will Cuba Lose Almost Half of Its Population by 2100?, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec.14, 2024).

Diario de Cuba’s Editorial on Its 15th Anniversary

On December 4 , Diario de Cuba, a daily Internet Cuban diary (in Spanish and English) published in Madrid, Spain, celebrated its 15th anniversary with the following editorial.[1]

“Exactly 15 years ago, the first news and articles from this newspaper appeared on the screens of some readers. Over the course of this decade and a half, changes have taken place in Cuba, but not those necessary for the country’s democratization.”

“Fidel Castro died—which for many seemed not only unimaginable, but impossible—and something else happened that had seemed impossible: the people took to the streets to protest their living conditions. The regime in Havana opened an embassy in Washington, Washington opened an embassy in Havana, and the rapprochement between the two countries, arranged by President Obama, was ultimately sabotaged by the Cuban regime.”

“With Miguel Díaz-Canel chosen by Raúl Castro, the first revolutionary leader who did not participate in the armed struggle rose to the presidency of the country and the secretariat of its sole party. Almost the country’s entire productive economy passed into the hands of the military conglomerate GAESA , which has set about building hotels while ignoring the downturn in tourism and ruling out investments much needed for the Cuban population.”

“The country became even more indebted and, in a vicious circle, persisted in its tradition of shirking its financial obligations. The authorities implemented the most ill-advised monetary policies possible, so inflation runs rampant in Cuba. Medical professionals and technicians have been, and continue to be, exploited by means of contracts lucrative for the regime but exploitive for them.”

“In response to the popular protests, the regime ratcheted up its repression against dissidents, activists and independent journalists, as the Justice system was turned into an ever stronger mechanism of repression , and the number of political prisoners grew. Censorship of thought and the arts intensified, and those young artists who protested ended up in prison or having to go into exile.”

“The migratory wave in the history of the country began, and the emigration of the youngest Cubans, along with low birth rates, has contributed to a largest acute aging of the population . Every day it is more and more difficult to have children in Cuba. Elderly Cubans are more vulnerable than ever. The regime used to have a “monopoly” on violence, but now cities and towns are no longer safe. Public insecurity is on the rise, gangs of young people are forming, and VAW is claiming more and more victims.”

“Each new state measure manages to render agriculture and livestock even more unproductive. Cuba, once the world’s largest exporter of sugar, has been fallen apart, with the country now importing sugar for several years. The only plant that grows in Cuba is marabou, and farmers determined to make the land produce are hampered by new restrictions. Meanwhile, no less onerous burdens weigh on entrepreneurs, who have been allowed, reluctantly, to start MSMEs.”

“Health and education, which for decades were the regime’s showpieces, have collapsed, their decline evident in the unhealthy state of hospital facilities and students’ poor results. Sports, another point of pride for socialism, are suffering a similar fate. Not even baseball is spared. Just as Cuba ceased to be a sugar powerhouse, it has now ceased to be a baseball power too.”

“In the last 15 years the regime has been dismantling the welfare system with which it had mitigated social inequalities, to the point that it no longer addresses the fate of the most disadvantaged . Today we can talk about the end of the grocery store book and rationing card. With blackout after blackout, the island has been sunk in darkness, and the national electrical system can no longer hold up. The last hurricanes to hit the island have highlighted the ineffectiveness of its on-effective civil defense system.”

“Old, dilapidated buildings continue, inexorably, to collapse, and the construction of new homes is an unresolved problem in every government plan. Vagrants, homeless people, and children who work, or beg, are becoming more common on Cuban streets. Meanwhile, his heirs of the regime’s elite boast on social media about what their parents have stolen, and continue to steal.”

“The Cuban regime cultivates alliances with nations like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and continues to meddle in Venezuela’s politics. It no longer operates based on any ideology, but rather on the exercise of brute force, and continues to mutate towards a dictatorship shamelessly open to benefiting a fortunate few.”

“Over the course of this last decade and a half, DIARIO DE CUBA has been there, studying and covering the scenarios briefly summarized above. In celebration of its birthday, last October the “For the Cuba of Tomorrow” DDC Forum was held in Madrid. Through it, and its day-to-day work, DDC demonstrates its commitment to the Cuba of the future.”

“On this anniversary, all that remains is to thank all our contributors and readers, and to renew this publication’s commitment to Cuba and to Cuban democracy.”

Reactions

As a U.S. citizen with some connections with Cuba, including three visits to the island at the start of this century, conversations with Cubans who have visited the U.S. and carefully following the published news about Cuba, especially those in Diario de Cuba, and writing blog posts about same,[2] I concur in most of this editorial’s observations.

However, although agreeing that U.S. President Obama had taken steps for “rapprochement between the two countries,” I think it is overstatement to claim that this effort was “ultimately sabotaged by the Cuban regime.” Obama’s successor (President Donald Trump) reversed some of those steps and the whole psychology of improving the relationship and even President Biden has not returned to the Obama effort.[3]

Recently a group of 15 U.S. Congress Representatives wrote a letter to President Biden urgently requesting “immediate action to stabilize Cuba’s energy infrastructure and provide critical humanitarian assistance. The Cuban people are currently facing widespread blackouts and an escalating energy crisis, exacerbated by the impact of Hurricane Rafael. The situation is not only causing immense suffering for the Cuban people but also poses serious risks to U.S. national security interests. If left unaddressed, the crisis will almost certainly fuel increased migration, strain U.S. border management systems, and fully destabilize the already-strained Caribbean region.”[4]

Therefore, these Congressmen “strongly” recommended “removing Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) list” and suspending “sanctions that hinder the flow of humanitarian assistance, including restoring the EAR license exception to allow donations to Cuban health and humanitarian relief entities.” This blogger endorsed those recommendations plus asking President Biden to “eliminate the U.S. embargo of Cuba. . . .“

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[1] Editorial: DIARIO DE CUBA Turns 15, Diario de Cuba (Dec. 4, 2024)..

[2] See List of Posts to dwkcommentaries—Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20}.The labor of manually preparing updates to this list has discouraged the blogger from creating similar subsequent lists.

[3] See the posts listed in these sections (U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2014; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2015); U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2016);and U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2017; U.S. (Trump) & Cuba Relations, 2016-17) of List of Posts to dwkcommentaries– Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20}.

[4] U.S. Congressmen Ask President Biden To Provide Sanctions Relief and Other Aid to Cuba, dwkcommentaries.com (Nov. 20, 2024).

U.S. State Department Criticizes Cuban Relations with Russia and China

At a State Department press conference on September 27, 2024, a Cuban journalist asked, “ How do you view Cuba’s approach to China and Russia and its role in the crisis in Venezuela?”

Assistant Secretary of State Brian A. Nichols (Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs and Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs) responded:

“Well, Cuba is not a democratic country, and we would encourage Cuban authorities to think about how they could better respect human rights and the rule of law in their own country and around the world. I think that their engagement on this issue as well as their relations with countries like Russia and China, which are also not democratic, they’re not doing things that would advance democracy in the Western Hemisphere. They’re playing a role of supporting governments around the world that don’t respect the fundamental rights and freedoms of their citizens as enshrined in the UN Charter and many other international documents. And we encourage all of them to adhere to a much greater respect for democracy, human rights, and rule of law.”

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U.S. State Department, UNGA79: U.S. Priorities in the Western Hemisphere (Sept. 27, 2024).

Support for Immigration from Nicholas Eberstadt and George Will

Nicholas Eberstadt , the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at Washington, D.C.;’s American Enterprise Institute (AEI), has authored a penetrating 23-page article about the upcoming new era of history he calls “the age of depopulation.”[1]

Eberstadt “researches and writes extensively on demographics and economic development generally, and more specifically on international security in the Korean peninsula and Asia. Domestically, he focuses on poverty and social well-being.” The AEI is a “public policy think tank dedicated to defending human dignity, expanding human potential, and building a freer and safer world [and advancing] ideas rooted in our belief in democracy, free enterprise, American strength and global leadership, solidarity with those at the periphery of our society, and a pluralistic, entrepreneurial culture.”[2]

George Will’s Endorsement of Eberstadt’s Article

George Will, the noted columnist for the Washington Post, has endorsed the importance of the Eberstadt article, in a two-page column that distills at least some of Eberstadt’s important points.[3]

Here are the key points of that distillation.

“Earth’s population is going to decline. A lot. This will create social hazards that will challenge political ingenuity. Still, it will be, primarily, a protracted reverberation of a relatively recent, and excellent, event in humanity’s story: the emancipation of women.”

Eberstadt “says a large excess of deaths over births will be driven not by a brute calamity like the bubonic plague but by choices: those regarding fertility, family structures and living arrangements, all reflecting ‘a worldwide reduction in the desire for children.’”

“Today, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries with below-replacement levels (2.1 births per woman) of fertility. Since the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia has had 17 million more deaths than births. The 27 European Union countries are, collectively, 30 percent below replacement. Last year, France had fewer births than in 1806, when Napoleon won the Battle of Jena. Italy had the fewest since its 1861 unification, Spain the fewest since it started keeping track of this in 1859. America’s “demographic exceptionalism” is despite its fertility rate (1.62 last year), thanks to immigration.”

“Eberstadt says, as the world has become richer, healthier, more educated and more urbanized, ‘the most powerful national fertility predictor’ has been something related to these changes: changes in ‘what women want.’ Volition shapes birth rates because now people everywhere are ‘aware of the possibility of very different ways of life from the ones that confined their parents.’”

“It is possible that ‘the pervasive graying of the population and protracted population decline will hobble economic growth and cripple social welfare systems in rich countries,’ Eberstadt writes. Also: ‘A coming wave of senescence,’ smaller family units, fewer people getting married, ‘high levels of voluntary childlessness,’ ‘dwindling workforces, reduced savings and investment, unsustainable social outlays, and budget deficits’ are the fate of developed nations — unless they make ‘sweeping changes.’”

“Eberstadt is, however, tentatively cheerful: ‘Steadily improving living standards and material and technological advances will still be possible.’ The Earth ‘is richer and better fed than ever before — and natural resources are more plentiful and less expensive (after adjusting for inflation), than ever before,’ and the global population is more ‘extensively schooled’ than ever. What is required is ‘a favorable business climate,’ which is Eberstadt’s shorthand for allowing market forces to wring maximum efficiency from fewer people: ‘Prosperity in a depopulating world will also depend on open economies: free trade in goods, services, and finance to counter the constraints that declining populations otherwise engender.’”

“The ‘demographic tides’ are, Eberstadt writes, running against the quartet of nations (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) that, oblivious of demography, are exaggerating their future powers. China’s next generation ‘is on track to be only half as large as the preceding one.’”

“Furthermore, ‘demographic trends are on course to augment American power.’”

“Although the United States is ‘a sub-replacement society, it has higher fertility levels than any East Asian country and almost all European states,’ Eberstadt says. Even more important, thanks to immigration, ‘the United States is on track to account for a growing share of the rich world’s labor force, youth, and highly educated talent.’”

“One issue in this year’s presidential campaign is germane to the convulsive demographic changes that are coming: immigration. Concerning this, Donald Trump is obtuse, and Kamala Harris has, as about most things, vagueness born of timidity.”

Conclusion

Many thanks to Eberstadt and Will for their illumination of these exceedingly important issues.

This blog has written many posts about the aging and declining population of the U.S. and many of its states and other countries in the world and the challenges that presents and to the importance of the U.S. continuing to develop policies that encourage and welcome immigrants.[4]

With some exceptions, most U.S. citizens should be glad to think and say “I am a proud descendant of immigrants to the U.S.” and support reforms of U.S. immigration law to welcome more immigrants.

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[1] Eberstadt, The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Gray, Foreign Affairs (Nov/Dec 2024)

[2] Nicolas Eberstadt, Bio & Experience; About {AEI}.

[3] Will, If demography is destiny, bring on immigration. We’re going to need it, Wash. Post (Oct. 23, 2024)

[4] Here is a list of some of the posts to dwkcommentaries regarding the challenges to public policy presented by low birthrates for the U.S. and many other countries and hence the need for more immigrants: U.S. States That Could Have Greatest Benefit from Immigrants Labor (February 28, 2024); Another Documentation of the U.S. Need for Immigrants (April 12, 2024); U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low (April 25, 2024); Will the World’s Population Cease To Expand? (May 15, 2024); Foreign Physicians Needed To Solve U.S. Doctor Shortage, (June 1, 2024);“Economist” Magazine Also Predicts Lower World Population (June 3, 2024):Pew Research Center Proposes Framework for U.S. Immigration Reform (10/2/24);The Significance of the U.S. Low Birth Rate (10/7/24);.Government Difficulties in Raising Birthrates (10/14/24)..

Russia Announces New Cooperation with Cuba

On September 10, Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, announced that Russia “will take additional measures to support [Cuba], in particular, with the granting of new lines of credit.” He stressed that “Cuba is one of Russia’s closest allies in Latin America” and that relations between the two countries have stood “the test of time.” [i]

In this regard, he added: “We are ready to increase cooperation within the framework of security councils, special services and police departments. We pay special attention to trade, economic and investment cooperation.” As a result, he was confident that Cuba “will overcome the serious consequences of the economic blockade imposed by the United States.”

In addition, “the Russian Minister of Transport, Roman Starovoit, during the recently concluded Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, said that “Russian airlines are interested in expanding commercial flights to the Island in the near future.” In addiiton, “the Russian Railways (RZD) company presented details of the contract with Cuba to modernize the island’s railway network, . . . [which seeks to modernize] more than 1,000 kilometres of Cuba’s dilapidated railways.”

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[i] Russia announces ‘additional measures’ to increase cooperation with Havana, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 10, 2024)

Noted Critic of Cuba Lambasts EU Aid to Cuba

The Wall Street Journal’s columnist, Mary Anastasia O’Grady, has penned a severe criticism of the European Union’s financial aid to the island. This July, for example, the EU “sent E500,000 to Cuba, ostensibly for ‘public health’” and its “Multiannual Indicative Programme (MIP) for Cuba for 2021-2024 amounts to €91 million.”[1]

“Anna Fotyga, a former Polish minister of foreign affairs and a former member of the European Parliament, wrote in the European Conservative last week that it’s ‘estimated that the EU is currently funding 80 projects in Cuba at a cost of nearly 155 million euros. Every single one of these projects is run by organizations with close ties to the Raul Castro regime.’”

In short,”there is no such thing as an independent nongovernmental organization that receives money from abroad in Cuba. . . . Sending money to Cuba is sending money to the regime.”

Moreover, “European aid . . . also goes against European interests because Havana is helping Russia in its effort to take Ukraine.”

“[B]ankrupt Havana is desperate for hard currency. First because its economy doesn’t grow. Second because it needs to maintain its repressive police state, at home and in Venezuela where the Cuban agents have infiltrated the military.”

“J11 (the day of mass arrests of Cuban protesters) “revealed the raw brutality the regime uses to keep the lid on popular discontent. Condemnation came from all quarters. Hollywood apologists went silent.”

“Dissident leader Daniel Ferrer is in a prison on the other end of the island. The website Ciber Cuba reported on Aug. 22 that the 56-year-old ‘is in a sealed cell, where hardly any air circulates’ and there is no daylight. He ‘perceives a constant noise within the cell’ and suffers “severe headaches, ringing in the ears, bleeding in the mouth, loss of vision, cramps, and momentary paralysis in his hands.”

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[1] O’Grady, The EU Funds Havana—and Helps Moscow, W.S.J. (Sept. 1, 2024); O’Grady’s bio.

Another Indictment of the Cuban Economy

Cuba Siglo 21 has published a new dossier by economist Emilio Morales that provides a statistical x-ray of the collapse of the regime’s system on the island. [1]

“The Cuban economy is in a critical phase due to the drastic fall of more than 50% of its main sources of income: export of medical services, remittances and tourism. This financial collapse has accelerated the countdown of the governance regime.”

“The export of medical services, the country’s main source of income, has suffered a 78.12% dropsince its peak in 2013, when it reached 10.42 billion dollars.”
“Remittances, the second largest source of income, have also declined significantly. In 2023, remittances totaled $1,972.56 million, a drop of 3.31% compared to 2022 and 46.93% compared to 2019, before the pandemic. Morales attributes the decline to mass emigration that began after the crackdown on protests on July 11, 2021, which ‘has not only reduced remittances but has also resulted in a significant flight of human capital.’”
“Tourism, one of Cuba’s most promising industries, has failed to recover post-pandemic. Morales recalls that in 2023 Cuba received 2,436,979 tourists, a figure comparable to that of 2009, well below the expected levels. The economist points out that ‘the situation is aggravated by the decrease in Cuban tourists living abroad, a key segment for the Cuban tourism economy.’”
“The regime’s commitment to attracting Russian tourists has not compensated for the loss of European tourism, affected by the Cuban government’s support for Russia in the war against Ukraine. The arrival of tourists from the five main European issuers (Italy, France, Germany, Spain and England) has decreased by 67.45% in the last five years.”
“The Cuban regime has proven incapable of implementing effective mechanisms to transform the economy and overcome the current multi-systemic crisis. The fall of the three main sources of income by more than 50% reflects the total dysfunctionality of the governance regime.”

“Even the regime’s allied governments are not willing to carry out a large-scale economic rescue. The governance models of Russia, China or Vietnam have not been adopted, and the power elite in Cuba continues to resist any change.”

“Mass emigration has decapitalized the country financially and in terms of human resources, and the metamorphosis of Castroism into a mafia state, with GAESA as the center of true power, has led to the destruction of industries and the loss of political capital.”

“The Cuban Communist Party (PCC) has no retraining pool, with many members who no longer believe in the party or its ideology.”

“The economic crisis has had devastating effects on all sectors of society.There is an alarming shortage of teachers, health personnel , workers in the sugar industry, tourism and the energy system. Even the justice system is affected, with the Supreme Court of Justice operating at only 69% of its capacity.”

“With the celebration of the 71st anniversary of the attack on the Moncada barracks, Cuba finds itself in a deep humanitarian crisis, with 89% of the population living in poverty and 1.79 million citizens having left the country in recent years.”

Morales concludes, “the Cuban system has collapsed. The Cuban state is dysfunctional and bankrupt. The Cuban government is mediocre and lacks leadership. The Cuban power elite is impervious to criticism. Without some kind of radical transformation to prevent or postpone it, the final collapse, by one route or another, is inevitable.”[2]

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[1] 71 years after July 26: ‘The Cuban Economy has collapsed,’ Diario de Cuba (July 25, 2024). Cuba Siglo 21 is “a nongovernmental think tank based in Madrid, Spain that serves the forces that promote change in Cuba towards an open, democratic and prosperous society supported by the rule of law and a free market. ” (About Cuba Siglo 21.)

[2] See also ‘Distortion’ of employment in Cuba: army of inspectors, thousands less farmers, teachers and doctors, Diario de Cuba (July 25, 2024); The regime is forced to stop falsifying data on Cuba’s demographic crisis, Diario de Cuba (July 24, 2024); Industrial devastation in Cuba is worse than the agricultural catastrophe, Diario de Cuba (July 23, 2024).

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