Tag: Russia

Russian Military Ships’ Recent Visit to Cuba 

On June 12th  four Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine and a frigate capable of carrying hypersonic missiles, arrived in Cuba. Their arrival and visit were monitored by U.S. and Canadian ships.[1]

Just hours later on June 12th a U.S. Navy nuclear-powered submarine (the USS Helena) stopped in the waters near the U.S. Guantanamo Naval Base at the eastern end of Cuba, and other U.S. and Canadian military vessels were in the island’s vicinity.[2]

According to the Official statement of Cuba’s Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces, the visit of the four Russian naval vessels was “part of the historic friendly relations between Cuba and the Russian Federation, [and] strictly adheres to the international conventions to which the State of Cuba is a party. Since none of these ships carry nuclear weapons, their stopover in our country represents no threat to the region.”[3]

While the Russian vessels were docked in Havana, they were open for visits to Cuban visitors, including its President, Miguel Diaz-Canel. The Russian vessels left Havana on June 18th, and its frigate went north along the U.S. eastern coastline.

On June 18th Alexander Moiseev, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, said that “the proximity of the detachment of ships of the [Russian] Northern Fleet to the borders of our current opponent [the U.S.] irritates someone. For us this is very important, and we trusted the actions of our forces. In addition, it shows support for the Republic of Cuba, which is close to us. The campaign had an effect,” and the Kremlin “will continue the practice of sailing ships to distant maritime zones.” [4]

On the same date, June 18th ,  the Pentagon’s Press Secretary, Major General Pat Ryder, said, “we obviously closely monitored [the Russian naval activity near Cuba and now near the U.S.. but we], don’t see any threat to the homeland and, and these types of exercises are not new. We’ve seen them take place . . . over the years.”

U.S. Congressional Hearing[5]

On June 12, the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing on “Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere” with the following witnesses: Brian Nichols, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs; Todd Robinson, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Department of State; and Mr. Michael Camilleri, Acting Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean, U.S. Agency for International Development.

Chairman McCaul’s Opening Statement

The Committee’s Chair, Representative Michael McCaul (Rep., Tex.), opened the hearing with an Opening Statement, which stated, in part, the following:

  • “Under the Biden administration, China, Russia, and Iran have bolstered their presence in the region. They have cornered critical mineral markets, expanded their military footprint, and deepened their intelligence capabilities. All aided and abetted by many authoritarian regimes in the Americas. As we speak, four Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, and a frigate carrying hypersonic missiles are set to arrive in Cuba.”
  • “Congress has given the President tools to combat and compete with the great powers. It has authorized the [U.S. International Development Finance Corporation], appropriated bilateral economic assistance, and provided funding through the CHIPS Act – which I authored and passed into law – to secure our supply chains. It has mandated corruption sanctions against foreign officials and their family members.”
  • “And yet, the Biden administration has not effectively used all the tools Congress has provided. The result is a hemisphere more and more aligned with our adversaries.”
  • “Our adversaries cannot be separated. They are all connected and they are all working together. We can’t win the game if we are not on the field competing.
  • “And in the great power competition in our hemisphere, I believe, that America is falling behind.”

In his subsequent questioning of the three witnesses, McCaul said, “ I think we need a new doctrine for our hemisphere. One that protects our interests, combats our enemies, and promotes shared prosperity between us and our allies.”

Assistant Secretary Nichols’ Testimony

Assistant Secretary Nichols told the Committee that the U.S. in discussions with Cuban officials has raised U.S. concerns about Cuba’s allowing or promoting “the participation of Cuban mercenaries as part of Russian aggression against Ukraine.” This is just one of many actions that demonstrates the importance of the Cuba-Russia  military relationship, including the arrival this week of four Russian vessels in Cuban waters, and their monitoring by U.S. and Canadian warships.[6]

Nichols also mentioned the recent U.S. efforts to encourage the growing importance of private business enterprises in Cuba, which the U.S. believes are vital to counteract the malign influence on Cuba of Russia and China.

Conclusion

Unfortunately the U.S. continued embargo of Cuba and identifying the island as a state sponsor of terrorism have contributed to a tense relationship between the two countries and to Cuba’s need for support from other strong countries like Russia. As has been argued in other posts to this blog, the U.S. should cease these policies that are harmful to Cuba and pursue a policy of reconciliation.

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 [1]  E.g., Russian ships arrive in Cuba as Cold War allies strengthen their ties, CNN.com (June 12, 2024).

[2]  The US sends an attack submarine to the Guantanamo Naval Base, Diario de Cuba (June 13, 2024).

[3] The regime regarding the US nuclear submarine: ‘We were informed, but we do not like its presence, Diario de Cuba (June 15, 2024).

 [4 ] What Is the Russian war flotilla that was in Cuba doing off the coast of Florida, Diario de Cuba? (June 19, 2024); The Russian war flotilla leaves Cuba, while US ships and tracking planes are activated, Diario de Cuba (June 17, 2024)

[5] House Foreign Affairs Comm., Committee Hearing Notice (June 5, 2024); House Foreign Affairs Comm., Hearing Webcast, Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere (June 12, 2024)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[6] Granma, the official newspaper of the island’s communist Party, said the arrival of these Russian vessels was “a sign of the two countries’ “relations of friendship and collaboration.” (In Cuba, naval detachment of the Russian Federation, Granma (June 13, 2024) https://www.granma.cu/mundo/2024-06-13/en-cuba-destacamento-naval-de-la-federacion-de-rusia-13-06-2024-02-06-11

 

 

U.S. Congressional Hearing About Cuban Private Sector

On June 27,  the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing regarding  “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean“ that focused on the Cuban private sector [1]

Testimony of Eric Jacobstein

The lead witness for this hearing was Eric Jacobstein, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department.

He testified that the United States Government is committed to continuing to promote the growth of the private sector in Cuba and supporting the economic well-being of the people, in the face of strengthening Havana’s relations with Moscow and Beijing.”

“Today, more than a third of the Cuban workforce works in one of the more than 11,000 private companies on the Island. The Cuban people still see the United States as a preferred partner. Therefore, we cannot give space to Russia or China and we must continue to encourage private sector growth.”

“The private sector offers ordinary Cubans the opportunity for a better life.”

Testimony of Greg Howell

Also testifying was Greg Howell,  the deputy administrator for the Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). He said this entity has provided for the training of hundreds of journalists, “whose work in major international media has countered the Cuban regime’s manipulation of information, documenting the difficult conditions on the island and highlighting human rights violations by the [Cuban] Government.”

“For nearly 30 years, across four U.S. administrations, U.S. assistance has helped the people of Cuba in the face of an oppressive government, supporting human rights, fundamental freedoms, and democratic values ​​by strengthening civil society and providing a better access to information.”

USAID, “responding to a request from Cuban authorities, . . provided personal protective equipment for [Cuban] firefighters in September 2022, more than a month after the fire that broke out on August 5 at the Matanzas Supertanker Base and caused the deaths of 17 people, mainly young people who were performing their mandatory military service.

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[1] The US is committed to ‘continuing to promote the growth of the private sector’ in Cuba, Diario de Cuba (June 28, 2024) ;

House of Representatives, Foreign Affairs Comm., Subcommittee Hearing Announcement: “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean (June 20, 2024)

House of Representatives, Foreign Affairs Comm., Subcommittee Hearing, “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean (June 27, 2024)

 

U.S. Again Ranks Cuba in Worst Category for Human Trafficking

On June 24, the U.S. State Department released its 2023 Trafficking in Persons Report on human trafficking, whose “severe forms” are defined in the U.S. Trafficking Victims Proetection Act (TVPA) as: “sex trafficking in which a commercial sex act is induced by force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such an act has not attained 18 years of age” or “the recruitment, harboring, transportation, provision, or obtaining of a person for labor or services, through the use of force, fraud, or coercion for the purpose of subjection to involuntary servitude, peonage, debt bondage, or slavery.”[1]

U.S. Secretary of State’s Comments

U.S. Seretary of State Antony J. Blinken opened the State Department’s session with the following message:

  • “Human trafficking is a stain on the conscience of our society.  It fuels crime, corruption, and violence.  It distorts our economies and harms our workers. And it violates the fundamental right of all people to be free.”
  • “Around the globe, an estimated 27 million people are exploited for labor, services, and commercial sex.  Through force, fraud, and coercion, they are made to toil in fields and factories, in restaurants and residences.  Traffickers prey on some of the world’s most marginalized and vulnerable individuals – profiting from their plight.”
  • “The State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons Report provides the world’s most comprehensive assessment of this abhorrent practice, as well as efforts by governments and stakeholders around the globe to combat it.  By measuring progress in 188 countries – including the United States – we are advancing President Biden’s commitment to prevent trafficking, prosecute perpetrators, and protect survivors.”
  • “Even as this resource covers long-standing forms and methods of trafficking, it also examines the growing role of technology in both facilitating exploitation and countering it.”
  • “Digital tools have amplified the reach, scale, and speed of trafficking. Perpetrators use dating apps and online ads to recruit victims.  They use online platforms to sell illicit sexual content.  They leverage encrypted messaging and digital currencies to evade detection.”
  • “At the same time, technology is also one of our most powerful tools to combat this enduring scourge.  Mobile phones, social media platforms, and artificial intelligence make it possible for advocates and law enforcement to raise greater awareness about the rights of workers and migrants, locate victims and perpetrators of online sexual exploitation, and analyze large amounts of data to detect emerging human trafficking trends.”
  • “As technology makes it easier for traffickers to operate across geographies and jurisdictions, those of us committed to rooting out this horrendous crime – in government, businesses, civil society – can and must work together and coordinate our efforts.”

U.S. Ambassador at Large’s Comments

Cindy Dyer, the U.S. Ambassor at Large, added comments about this report that focused on the importance of partners (survivors, other governments and non-governmental agencies) in combatting this trafficking.

Ranking of Countries

The report ranked all countries of  the world into the following tiers:

  • “Tier 1 Countries whose governments fully meet the TVPA’s minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking.” (30 countries, including the U.S.)
  • “Tier 2 Countries whose governments do not fully meet the TVPA’s minimum standards but are making significant efforts to bring themselves into compliance with those standards.” (105 countries)
  • “Tier 2 Watch List. Countries whose governments do not fully meet the TVPA’s minimum standards but are making significant efforts to bring themselves into compliance with those standards, and for which:the estimated number of victims of severe forms of trafficking is very significant or is significantly increasing and the country is not taking proportional concrete actions; or there is a failure to provide evidence of increasing efforts to combat severe forms of trafficking in persons from the previous year, including increased investigations, prosecutions, and convictions of trafficking crimes, increased assistance to victims, and decreasing evidence of complicity in severe forms of trafficking by government officials.” (26 countries)
  • “Tier 3. Countries whose governments do not fully meet the TVPA’s minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so.” In addition, “The TVPA, as amended, lists additional factors to determine whether a country should be on Tier 2 (or Tier 2 Watch List) versus Tier 3: the extent to which the country is a country of origin, transit, or destination for severe forms of trafficking; the extent to which the country’s government does not meet the TVPA’s minimum standards and, in particular, the extent to which officials or government employees have been complicit in severe forms of trafficking; reasonable measures that the government would need to undertake to be in compliance with the minimum standards in light of the government’s resources and capabilities to address and eliminate severe forms of trafficking in persons; the extent to which the government is devoting sufficient budgetary resources to investigate and prosecute human trafficking, convict and sentence traffickers; and obtain restitution for victims of human trafficking; and the extent to which the government is devoting sufficient budgetary resources to protect victims and prevent the crime from occurring.” (24 countries, including Cuba. The other countries so ranked are Afghanistan, Algeria, Belarus, Burma, Cambodia, Chad, China (People’s Republic of), Curacao, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of ), Macau, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Sint Maarten, South Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.)

Report’s Comments on Cuba

 In the section entitled “Topics of Special Interest” the report discussed  “Human Trafficking in Cuba’s Labor Export Program.” Here is what it said:

“Each year, the Cuban government sends tens of thousands of workers around the globe under multi-year cooperation agreements negotiated with receiving countries.  While medical missions remain the most prevalent, the Cuban government also profited from other similarly coercive labor export programs, including those involving teachers, artists, athletes and coaches, engineers, forestry technicians, and nearly 7,000 merchant mariners worldwide.   According to a report published by the Cuban government, by the end of 2023, there were more than 22,000 government-affiliated Cuban workers in over 53 countries, and medical professionals composed 75 percent of its exported workforce.  The COVID-19 pandemic increased the need for medical workers in many places around the world, and the Cuban government used the opportunity to expand its reach by increasing the number of its medical personnel abroad through the Henry Reeve Brigades, which Cuba first initiated in 2005 to respond to natural disasters and epidemics.  Experts estimate the Cuban government collects $6 billion to $8 billion annually from its export of services, which includes the medical missions.  The labor export program remains the largest foreign revenue source for the Cuban government.”

“There are serious concerns with Cuba’s recruitment and retention practices surrounding the labor export program.  While the conditions of each international labor mission vary from country to country, the Cuban government subjects all government-affiliated workers to the same coercive laws.  Cuba has a government policy or pattern to profit from forced labor in the labor export program, which includes foreign medical missions.  The Cuban government labels workers who leave the program without completing it as “deserters,” a category that under Cuban immigration law deems them as “undesirable.”  The government bans workers labeled as “deserters” and “undesirables” from returning to Cuba for eight years, preventing them from visiting their families in Cuba.  It categorizes Cuban nationals who do not return to the country within 24 months as having “emigrated.”  Individuals who emigrate lose all their citizen protections, rights under Cuban law, and any property they left behind.  These government policies and legal provisions, taken together, coerce workers and punish those seeking to exercise freedom of movement.  According to credible sources, by 2021, the Cuban government had sanctioned 40,000 professionals under these provisions, and by 2022, there were approximately 5,000 children forcibly separated from their parents due to the government’s policies surrounding the program.”

“Complaints filed with the International Criminal Court and the UN indicate most workers did not volunteer for the program, some never saw a contract or knew their destination, many had their passports confiscated by Cuban officials once they arrived at their destination, and almost all had “minders” or overseers.  According to the complaints and survivors, Cuban heads of mission in the country subjected workers to surveillance, prevented them from freely associating with locals, and imposed a strict curfew.  Cuba also confiscated between 75 and 90 percent of each worker’s salary.  As a result of the well-founded complaints and information about the exploitative nature of Cuba’s labor export program, at the end of 2023, the UN Special Rapporteur for Contemporary Forms of Slavery filed a new communication outlining the persistent concerns with the program, particularly for Cuban workers in Italy, Qatar, and Spain.”

“While exploitation, including forced labor, of workers remains the primary concern with the program, Cuba’s practices can also negatively impact a host country’s healthcare system.  Survivors of the program have reported being forced by the Cuban in-country mission director to falsify medical records and misrepresent critical information to justify their presence and need to local authorities.  Some individuals reported discarding medications, fabricating names, and documenting medical procedures that never occurred.  When medical workers refused to comply with the demands of the Cuban in-country mission director, they faced punishment and retaliation.  While the Cuban government promotes workers as highly skilled medical professionals and specialists, these workers often lack adequate medical training to treat complex conditions.  These practices are unethical, negligent, exploitative, and risk the lives of those they serve.”

“Governments should make efforts to combat human trafficking, and this includes not purchasing goods or services made or provided with forced labor.  Governments that utilize Cuba’s labor export programs despite the serious concerns with the program should at a minimum conduct frequent and unannounced labor inspections to screen these workers for trafficking indicators and employ victim-centered interviewing techniques.  These host governments should ensure all Cuban workers are subject to the same laws, regulations, and protections as for other migrant workers and that they are not brought via a negotiated agreement with the Government of Cuba that limits these protections or exempts Cuban workers from Wage Protections Systems or other tools designed to strengthen transparency.  Officials should ensure workers maintain complete control of their passports and medical certifications and can provide proof of full salary payment to bank accounts under the workers’ control.  They should scrutinize medical reports produced by these workers, offer protection for those who face retaliation and punishment for terminating their employment, and raise awareness of trafficking risks for all foreign workers, including government-affiliated Cuban workers.”

Cuba’s Comments on This Report[2]

On June 24, Granma (the official voice of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba) said, “[A lier is] the neighboring government, that one to the north of the archipelago, which, like the naked king in a children’s story, displays its falsehoods about Cuba, without realizing that its shame is in the air; so arrogant is its arrogance.The current U.S. administration arbitrarily insists on keeping Cuba in the worst category (level 3) in its recently published annual State Department report on human trafficking. The actions of the Washington authorities, marked by political motivations, deserved the response, from . . . the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of the Republic, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez [who said]:

“The empire has once again listed Cuba in its manipulative report on human trafficking, an outrageous maneuver in the open war against Cuban medical collaboration. Enough cynicism, Secretary Blinken. You are well aware of our zero-tolerance policy for this criminal practice. To justify the action, the report referred to the year 2023 uses contradictory arguments, based on the defamation of the work of Cuban medical collaboration in more than a hundred countries. Cuba’s cooperation with other peoples in the field of health is so humane that they have to attack it. It bothers them that, in the midst of the lordship of perversity and dishonor with which they pretend to dominate the world, the unsubmissive island brings light to the darkness and health to those who suffer.”

“But it is not fortuitous to include Cuba in spurious lists, to consider the island in the worst category in its report on human trafficking allows the White House to justify the blockade and the endless saga of coercive measures aimed at starving its people.”

“It would seem that the world is upside down: those who promote human trafficking, encouraging illegal departures, those who hinder the normal migratory flow between the two nations, are the ones who judge and punish.”

“Those who do not allow – to cite just one example – our baseball players to benefit from an agreement that prevents them from falling into the arms of human traffickers to reach the MLB, are the same ones who seek to condemn those who maintain a zero tolerance policy against human trafficking.”

Conclusion

This is a very complicated report, and the State Department website says, “This posted version is not fully accessible, meaning it may be inaccessible or incompatible with assistive technology. An accessible version will be posted as soon as the ongoing updates are concluded.” (Thus, there may be errors in this post and readers are invited to note any such corrections.)

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[1]U.S. State Dep’t, 2023 Trafficking in Persons Report (June 2024); The US considers that the regime ‘is not making significant efforts’ to combat human trafficking, Diario de Cuba (June 24, 2024).

[2] Capote, Accusing Cuba of human trafficking, another ruse to justify economic warfare, Granma (June 26, 2024).

Will the World’s Population Cease To Expand?  

This blog has published many posts about the U.S. currently experiencing a declining and aging population and seeing one solution in encouraging immigration from other countries that have increasing and younger populations.[1]

This perspective is complicated by some population experts seeing a future peak in world population and a subsequent shrinkage in same without reaching a plateau and stable population.[2]

Dean Spears’ Opinion

Dean Spears (an economist at the Population Research Center at the University of Texas, Austin) asserts that various experts agree that world population soon will peak and then shrink. Here are those experts’ opinions on the timing of such a peak: U.N. demographers, 2080s; Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2070s; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, 2060s.

The common element in these projections is families having smaller family sizes. The main reason, Spears claims, is “people want smaller families than people did in the past. Humanity is building a better, freer world with more opportunities for everyone, especially for women. That progress deserves everyone’s continued efforts. That progress also means that, for many of us, the desire to build a family can clash with other important goals, including having a career, pursuing projects and maintaining relationships.”

These competing interests could lead to “backsliding on reproductive freedom—by limiting abortion rights, for example. But Spears says, “low birthrates are no reason to reverse progress toward a more free, diverse and equal world.”

Spears concludes this analysis with the following statement: “Humanity needs a compassionate, factual and fair conversation about how to respond to depopulation and how to share the burdens of creating each future generation. The way to have that conversation is to start paying attention now.” (Emphasis added.)

Wall Street Journal’s Perspective

The Wall Street Journal begins its article, “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Many government leaders see this as a matter of national urgency. They worry about shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth and underfunded pensions; and the vitality of a society with ever-fewer children. Smaller populations come with diminished global clout, raising questions in the U.S., China and Russia about their long-term standings as superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Some demographers see this as part of a ‘second demographic transition,’ a society wide reorientation toward individualism that puts less emphasis on marriage and parenthood, and makes fewer or no children more acceptable.”

According to Professor Melissa Kearney of the University of Maryland, “state-level differences in parental abortion notification laws, unemployment, Medicaid availability, housing costs, contraceptive usage, religiosity, child-care costs and student debt could explain almost none of the decline. We suspect that this shift reflects broad societal changes that are hard to measure or quantify. . . . If people have a preference for spending time building a career, on leisure, relationships outside the home, that’s more likely to come in conflict with childbearing. Meanwhile, time-use data show that mothers and fathers, especially those that are highly educated, spend more time with their children than in the past. The intensity of parenting is a constraint.”

“With no reversal in birthrates in sight, the attendant economic pressures are intensifying. Since the pandemic, labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries. That will only worsen in coming years as the past crisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers, placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems.” (Emphasis added.)

Conclusion

 These articles were the first that this blogger had heard of a projected decline in world population which if and when it happened would have a major impact on many countries and national and international economics and politics. Comments by others on this topic are encouraged.

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[1] See, e.g., the following dwkcommentries.com posts: Naturalized U.S. Citizens: Important Contributors to U.S. Culture and Economy,(June 7, 2015); Iowa State Government Encouraging Refugee and Migrant Resettlement(Feb. 3, 2023); Other States Join Iowa in Encouraging Immigration to Combat Aging, Declining Population (Feb. 22, 2023); Wall Street Journal Editorial: U.S. Needs More Immigrants (July 25, 2023); S. Has Long-Term Labor Crisis (Sept. 26, 2023); Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S. (Nov. 4, 2023);U.S. States That Could Have the Greatest Benefit from Immigrant Labor (Feb. 28, 2024); Another Documentation of the U.S. Need for Immigrants (April 12, 2024); Negative Impact of Donald Trump’s Proposed Immigration Restrictions (May 15, 2024).

[2] Spears, The World’s Population May Peak in Your Lifetime. What Happens Next?, New York Times (Sept. 18, 2023), Ip & Adamy, Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed, W.S.J. (May 13, 2024).

 

 

Russia Is Responsible for Havana Syndrome Attacks on U.S. Personnel

“The former head of the Pentagon’s investigation into the mysterious health incidents known as Havana Syndrome told the CBS investigation show 60 Minutes he believes Russia was behind them and was attacking U.S. officials abroad and at home.”[1]

This television show, in partnership with The Insider (a Russian exile media outlet) and a German magazine (Der Spiegel), reported on new evidence connecting a possible domestic incident of Havana Syndrome to Russia and identified a Russian military intelligence unit, identified as 29155, as the possible culprit of some of the suspected attacks.

60 Minutes also reported that at last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania a senior Pentagon official suffered an “anomalous health incident” (the U.S. term for Havana Syndrome) that required medical care.

Greg Edgreen, who ran the investigation into Havana Syndrome for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency from 2021-23, said that as a result of the incidents, U.S. officers abroad have been “neutralized.” When asked by the show’s host if he thought the United States is being attacked, he answered, “My personal opinion, yes, by Russia” because there are “no barriers on what Moscow will do.”

“Sources told the [Miami] Herald that many of the officers injured were involved in work related to Russia or were stationed in places where Russian spies could work with ease, like Cuba, China, Vietnam and most of Europe. Some incidents in Hanoi, Bogota, London and India happened ahead of or during the visits by senior U.S. officials.

This blog previously has published posts about the Havana Syndrome.[2]

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[1] Torres, Russia is behind Havana Syndrome, attacks on U.S., former lead Pentagon investigator says, Miami Herald (April 1, 2024); Russia would be behind the ‘Havana Syndrome’, according to an investigation, Diario de Cuba (April 1, 2024), 

[2] Search for posts about HAVANA SYNDROME, dwkcommentaries.com.

Cuba’s Worsening Economic and Political Crisis 

Emilio Morales, a Cuban who has had wide-ranging marketing experience on the island, is now the President and CEO of Havana Consulting Group, a Miami-based consulting firm specializing in market intelligence and strategy for U.S. and and non-U.S. persons doing business in Cuba.[1]

Morales has provided a detailed analysis of Cuba’s worsening economic and political crisis.[2] The following is part of that analysis.

“The multi-systemic crisis that overwhelms Cubans and that has been caused by the ineptitude and mediocrity of those in power (shielded by lunatic ideological fanaticism and the ambition to control all the country’s wealth, leaves no room to make structural changes that are required to get out of the crisis) has generated a chaotic situation that seems to have no way out.”

‘The country is bankrupt, it has no lines of credit, its energy matrix is ​​collapsed, the three main areas of income have fallen precipitously: tourism, remittances and exports of medical services. The agricultural system is practically paralyzed, the sugar industry is destroyed. The health system, the education system and the transportation system suffer the same fate. There is nothing left to destroy. The only thing that is increasing is poverty and citizen anger, which so far in the last two years more than 600,000 Cubans have resolved by leaving the country.”

“Faced with this reality, the ruling leadership has postponed any forum for debate that exists in the political structures authorized in the country to address the economic, political and social issues that affect the country and its citizens. Months ago, the party apparatus suspended the Second National Conference of the Party, invoking the need to ‘be consistent with the economic situation of the country.’ Some time later, the Council of State announced the suspension for the second consecutive quarter of the so-called Accountability Assemblies of the delegates to his voters, an activity through which the Castro regime has tried for decades to illustrate its alleged model of ‘popular democracy’.”

“In other words, Cubans are mired in poverty, and the regime has closed the forums where they can channel their complaints, even though these have never really worked and have always been pure circus. But the leadership no longer even dares to put on its circus.”

“In this sense, the call for unity made by Raúl Castro on January 2, meant a strong alarm signal. At such a crucial moment, when what the people need is a message of hope, the nonagenarian dictator used his speech to instill fear in the already decimated partisan troops and in the military who no longer believe in the obligatory loyalty and obedience for which They once swore an oath to which they have been subjected for decades. Raúl Castro knows that this is the last bastion that apparently keeps them in power. It is what he has left before leaving this world, in his last-minute fight to avoid the collapse of the legacy that the revolution has kept alive with the historical generation.”

“Without a doubt, the country is not only experiencing a great multisystem crisis, it is also experiencing a great leadership crisis. In the ranks of the PCC and in the Armed Forces themselves there is a great feeling of discontent, and a high level of fatigue that manifests itself in apathy, harsh criticism of the system and the actions of the country’s leaders. This explains Raúl’s defeatist speech on January 2, calling for unity that no longer exists, and remembering that he will get out of the way of anyone who opposes the changes they order.”

“It is obvious that Counterintelligence has deeply penetrated the unrest that exists right now in the military and partisan ranks themselves . Hence, the sudden operation to reverse the package. A rebellion like the one on July 11, 2021 with the accompaniment of dissatisfied soldiers and militants of the party in rebellion would be the end of the dictatorship, and that reality is taking a toll on Saturn in these crucial moments.”

“GAESA collapses and the Russian bailout evaporates.”[3]

“The manifest insecurity at the top of power is related, among other factors, to two key factors: the lack of financial resources and the absence of a patron to keep it afloat at this stage of such political vulnerability. In this sense, the financial collapse of GAESA and the evaporation of the Russian bailout have suddenly triggered an increase in the level of vulnerability that the Cuban regime presents today. Certainly the largest it has had in more than six decades of communist dictatorship.”

“GAESA’s financial collapse is a key factor. In this sense, it should be noted that the death of General Luis Alberto Rodriguez López Callejas, CEO of GAESA, has generated a great disaster in the megaholding of the Cuban oligarchs. The verticality in decision-making and the management of the country’s finances and investments at its own convenience has turned out to be an indecipherable riddle for the substitutes that Raúl Castro has placed in his replacement strategy. Apparently no one gives a clue about how GAESA is managed.”

“At first glance, internally there is disorder, abandonment, undersupplied stores, and management personnel setting up their own MSMEs . A kind of mafia stampede is taking place, trying to create new small fiefdoms. The loss of suppliers, the company’s large debts with them, and the Government’s immobility in making decisions have generated an internal piñata that does not seem to be controlled. The level of control that existed in the company when López Calleja was there has disappeared. This is a very strong sign of internal collapse, of breaking the chain of command.”

“What happened recently at FINCIMEX on the eve of the package, with the issue of computer systems that control banking connections and the issuance of magnetic cards, is a good example of the breakdown of order within GAESA. As a result, the Western Union company has had to suspend remittance shipments to the Island until further notice and the issuance of cards for the sale of gasoline in dollars has stopped.”

“Obviously, something big is happening internally at GAESA . The last-minute problems that arose with their computer systems paralyzed the operations of stores, gas stations and remittance shipments. This unusual misfortune “coincided” with the abrupt abortion of the package, which has generated countless speculations. The truth is that a big sinkhole has suddenly occurred in GAESA and this further stirs up the uncertainty of what may happen in the coming days.”

“On the other hand, the announced Russian rescue has been much ado about nothing. Apparently the Russians do not trust the twisted Cuban legal system and have contained the investment drive that initially seemed to encompass several of the most important sectors of the Cuban economy. However, nothing is moving in the direction of investments.”

“Given the little movement seen so far, it is understandable that the Russian side is being very cautious when it comes to making decisions about million-dollar investments on the Island . The Russian side knows perfectly well that the Cuban regime is not a reliable partner in economic terms. On the other hand, it has realized the precariousness of the Cuban model and the primitive mentality when doing business on the part of the Cuban nomenclature. In that sense, the old and obsolete Cuban economic model does not fit with the Russian model. This disparity does not allow for faster progress in the negotiations. That is why everything remains speculation and promises that do not seem to be fulfilled. In reality, the true rapprochement has been on the military geopolitical level, in the game of the new Cold War unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and proven in practice with the support that the Cuban regime has given to Russia by sending mercenaries. Cubans to war and making Cuban territory available to receive visits from Russian bombers and submarines carrying nuclear weapons.”

“Very little has happened, however, in the economic and commercial sphere. A company has been created in Mariel for the storage and distribution of merchandise, but so far nothing moves in that warehouse. Russian banks have been connected with Cuban banks to allow the use of Russian cards on the Island. The most significant thing has been the increase in the number of flights from Russia to Cuba, which has meant an increase in Russian tourism by 3%. compared to the previous year. There have been approaches to explore investments in the energy sector, but nothing concrete so far. Not even Russian oil reaches Cuba anymore . Outside of that, from a commercial point of view nothing significant has transpired.”

“The current situation in the country is extremely critical. Without a doubt, the current crisis far exceeds that of the Special Period, at the beginning of the 90s. This is a multi-systemic crisis for which the Government has not yet found a way out. The incompetence of the ruling leadership that holds power, added to the lack of existing leadership in the country, the state of bankruptcy in which finances find themselves, the deterioration of the main industries, the 75% decrease in the income of the economy compared to 15 years ago, have buried all hope in Cubans for a solution to this crisis. As a consequence, more than 80% of the Cuban population today lives in poverty.”

“At a time when GAESA, the oligarchic octopus that controls 95% of the finances and more than 70% of the main sectors of the country’s economy, is collapsing internally and the Russian financial bailout evaporates, everything indicates that the country It is heading towards total collapse. Faced with this reality, the Cuban people must understand that the sudden abortion of the package was a desperate action to avoid an imminent large-scale social outbreak, which would surely be joined by dissatisfied partisan militants and a large number of dissatisfied military personnel. Something very different from what happened on July 11, 2021.”

“The fear that the ruling leadership has of the people’s anger is evident . The nonagenarian dictator is very clear and knows that, given the current circumstances, the probability that the system will break down before his own death is real. That is why he has launched a plan B, removing ministers to try to clean up the face of the Government. However, the Cuban people no longer swallow this type of makeup as solutions to appease emergencies, which can only be overcome with a change in the system.”

“Meanwhile, the uncertainty of what may happen on the Island in the coming days increases to the extent that blackouts, shortages of fuel, food and medicine, as well as inflation, continue to increase.”

“Not one, but several black swans flutter over the sky of the dying revolution, at a time when the internal fissures within the ranks of power are increasing and putting the Palace oligarchs in maximum tension. The Cuban people and the living forces of society must be alert to events that may occur at any moment. When the river sounds it is because it brings stones.”

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[1] Emilio Morales, Biography, Linkedin.

[2] Morales, Why is the Cuban regime aborting the package with such urgency?, Diario de Cuba (Feb. 17, 2024).

[3] “Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is a Cuban military-controlled umbrella enterprise with interests in the tourism, financial investment, import/export, and remittance sectors of Cuba’s economy. GAESA’s portfolio includes businesses incorporated in Panama to bypass CACR-related restrictions.” (U.S.Treasury Dept., Press Release: Treasury Identifies Cuban State-Owned Businesses for Sanctions Evasion (Dec. 21, 2020).)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two U.S. Congress Officials Object to O’Grady’s Defense of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism   

U.S. Representative Jim McGovern (Dem., Mass.) and U.S. Senator Peter Welch (Dem., VT) jointly voice their objection to Mary Anastasi O’Grady’s defense of the  U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism because, they argue, she presented no evidence for that action.[1]

Yes, McGovern and Welch say, “Cuban officials meet with counterparts in Russia and China, but so do American officials. Alliances with Russia and China, also cited as evidence of support for terrorism, would put half the world on the list. When it comes to spying, Cuba and other countries have had spies in the U.S.”

“Ms. O’Grady’s argument about Cuba’s support for Venezuela’s oppressive dictator might sound convincing, but Venezuela itself isn’t on the [terrorism] list. Cuba harbors some aging American fugitives, but none of them have been accused of international terrorism.”

“To be sure, there are [other] countries that belong on the list. [Two of them are North Korea and Syria.] North Korea threatens to launch nuclear weapons at us. Syria used chemical weapons on its own people and finances regional terrorists. Iran funds the rockets that rain down on Israel.”

“Cuba’s government is repressive; its economy is in shambles. If those were criteria for being on the list, it would be a mile long. It’s fine to criticize Cuba, but let’s be honest about who the real terrorists are. A policy of constructive engagement with Cuba might lead to more democracy. Wrongly labeling it as a sponsor of international terrorism only furthers a broken status quo.”

Conclusion

This blog has repeatedly and consistently argued that the U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism is unjustified. [2]

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[1] Compare McGovern & Welch, Cuba Is No Sponsor of International Terrorism, W.S.J. (Jan. 31, 2024), wit O’Grady, Why Cuba Belongs on the Terrorism List. W.S.J. (Jan. 21, 2024),

[2] E.g., Cuba Still on List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 1, 2023); U.S. Senators and Representatives Demand Ending of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 12, 2024);COMMENT: Another Congressman Calls for Ending Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 13, 2024).

 

 

 

U.S. House Hearing on Cuban Private Enterprise  

On January 18, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs held a hearing that opened with its chair, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Rep., FL), delivering a speech entitled “The Myth of the New Cuban Entrepreneurs: An Analysis of the Biden Administration’s Cuba Policy.”[1]

Salazar said, “according to information she has, the growth of private enterprises in Cuba is a ‘scheme’ by the Cuban government to violate the U.S. embargo and that only the children of Cuban leaders have an easy path to own these businesses.” That comment was echoed by Rep. Mark Green, a Tennessee Republican, saying, “the Cuban military is embedded in every single business, so the concept of a private sector is almost non-existent in the country.”

At the end of the hearing, however, after hearing about the Biden Administration’s position discussed below, Salazar “seemed to have softened her initial stance, telling the State Department officials that Republicans are ‘on the same page.’ Apparently contradicting her early views, she asked, “How can we help this administration really help those small business owners in Cuba that have no contact or connection with the regime to open up a good store if they want or to own a privately owned business? What can we do together?”

The Biden Administration’s Position on Cuban Private Enterprise

Eric Jacobstein, deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs, testified at the hearing, “In an acute twist of irony, the island’s communist government must now rely on private enterprise to provide food and basic services for its people. We believe the organic expansion of the private sector on the island – led by the Cuban people themselves and not by any foreign government – is an opportunity that should not be wasted. Above all, we must encourage the freedom of Cuban citizens to define their economic future. Failing to engage and support Cuba’s private sector would leave space for Russia and the [People’s Republic of China] to shape the direction of the Cuban economy. We must not allow this to happen.”

Jacobstein added, “We believe the organic expansion of the private sector on the island – led by the Cuban people themselves and not by any foreign government – is an opportunity that should not be wasted. Above all, we must encourage the freedom of Cuban citizens to define their economic future. Failing to engage and support Cuba’s private sector would leave space for Russia and the [People’s Republic of China] to shape the direction of the Cuban economy. We must not allow this to happen.” Moreover, “the private businesses give some young Cubans reasons to stay on the island despite the challenges. . . . In an acute twist of irony, the island’s communist government must now rely on private enterprise to provide food and basic services for its people,”

Enrique Roig, the deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, said that “the Biden administration is not solely focused on supporting independent private entrepreneurs but also on improving the human-rights situation on the island. In particular, the administration has pushed for the release of about 1,000 political prisoners.”

Rep. Joaquin Castro (Dem, TX), the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee, said, the U.S. should support Cuban entrepreneurial efforts, not stifle them.” He added, “Our policies of the last 60 years have not resulted in the changes we would like to see; in some cases, they have even emboldened the Cuban government and strengthened their relationship with key adversaries like China and Russia. The United States can both recognize the threat that the Cuban regime poses to regional and national security while also engaging on key priorities and supporting the Cuban people’s efforts to further their own democratic aspirations.” This includes embracing “former President Barack Obama’s engagement policies, including removing Cuba from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism,” calling it ‘a baseless, extremely harmful designation.’

California Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove said that the denial that the Cuban private sector truly exists was a “conspiracy theory.”

Other Comments on Cuban Private Enterprises

Before the hearing, John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a Washington-based organization tracking business with Cuba, wrote in the Cubatrade blog, “The hearing premise is established on a falsehood” and that it is “wrong” to define those who have created and manage the private enterprises “as participants in a myth, as dupes of the government … rather than instruments of change. [The Cuban government] “does not embrace the re-emerging private sector. It’s tolerated. That should not mean the United States Congress should dismiss it. Or worse, work against it. “

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[1] Torres, Republicans and Democrats in Congress clash over the existence of the private sector in Cuba, Miami Herald (Jan. 18, 2024),

 

U.S. Accuses Cuba of Attempted Interference in U.S. Elections in 2022

On December 18, 2023, the U.S. intelligence community released a redacted report that claimed the Cuban government conducted influence operations in the United States “aimed at denigrating specific U.S. candidates in Florida” during the 2022 midterm elections and that “Cuban officials worked to build relationships with members of the American media who held critical views of Havana’s critics in Congress, and that a network of social media accounts ‘almost certainly covertly tied’ to Cuba ‘amplified derogatory content’ on U.S. politicians viewed as hostile to the Cuban state.” In addition, the report said. “The Cuban government sought to influence perceptions of politicians belonging to both major U.S. political parties” and “Public Cuban government statements indicate that Havana views Cuban-Americans in Miami as having an outsized influence on U.S. policy in Cuba.”[1]

However, this declassified report “does not name any specific individuals who were targeted, and much of the report’s section on Cuba’s activities are redacted. The assessment also does not say how effective Havana’s influence campaign was on Florida’s elections” although it did say that Cuba’s efforts were “smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted” than the other three countries that were mentioned (Russia, China and Iran).

After the release of this report, an unnamed White House official referred a reporter to the intelligence community for comment on the report and to the State Department and Treasury Department on whether the U.S. plans any retaliatory response to Cuba’s election meddling.[2]

This was an insufficient response according to several Florida politicians.

Senator Marco Rubio said, “It should not be a surprise to anyone that the Cuban regime attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections, though such ‘participation’ in our democratic process is particularly ironic given the regime’s disdain for any semblance of democracy at home. The Biden administration must immediately condemn these actions, make clear they will not be tolerated, and expel Cuban diplomats from U.S. soil. Continued failure to treat Cuba like the tyrannical spying regime that it is only emboldens it.”

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, R-Miami, said, “this blatant interference in American elections must not be permitted and must be met by an immediate response from the United States government. The Cuban regime seeks to topple their enemies and plant their allies and agents in positions of power in the United States. South Florida politicians who oppose the regime are being attacked through the communist propaganda their mouthpieces spread.”

U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez said during a press conference that he believes he, Salazar and Miami’s other Republican congressman, Mario Diaz-Balart, were targeted, though he said he had not been told that directly. All three are Cuban Americans. “They redacted a whole bunch but you can infer from what you can see who exactly it was that they were talking about.”

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[1] U.S. National Intelligence Council, Foreign Threats to the 2022 US Elections, Declassified (12/23/23); Wilner, U.S. intelligence finds Cuba tried to influence Florida races during 2022 elections, Miami Herald (Dec. 19, 2023).

[2] Wilner, White House says it will not tolerate Cuban efforts to influence U.S. elections, Miami Herald (Dec.20, 2023).

 

Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S.  

For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, arrests at the U.S. Southwest border of migrants from China, India, Mauritania, Senegal, Russia and other distant countries tripled to 214,000. This is a special challenge for the U.S. because deporting them is “time-consuming, expensive and sometimes not possible.” As a result, the U.S. is actively working on obtaining agreements for removal of such immigrants with such countries.[1]

In Mexico an international smuggling ring works with a network of other smugglers handling migrants from Bangladesh, Yemen, Pakistan, Eritrea, India, Uzbekistan, Egypt and India.

For the second year in a row total arrests at the U.S. southern border surpassed two million, almost 90% of whom are from Latin America and the Caribbean.

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[1] Perez, Migrants Are Flocking to the U.S. From All Over the Globe, W.S.J. (Nov. 4, 2023).