Mexico – dwkcommentaries

Washington Post’s Criticism of Trump’s Tariffs

A Washington Post editorial voices criticism of Trump’s policy and comments about tariffs.

“The market never lies. It is often mistaken, as it was during the post-election honeymoon, when investors seemed to assume Donald Trump didn’t really mean it about tariffs. But it always tells you exactly what it thinks.”

“Right now, it is thinking that the stiff tariffs Trump has imposed will cost American companies, and the economy, dearly. Markets have plummeted since Trump announced new levies on Canada, Mexico and China, erasing nearly all gains since his election. The president might think that “trade wars are good, and easy to win,” but investors disagree.”

“In this, they reflect not only the consensus among economists but also the realities facing American businesses and consumers.”

“’Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs,’ a transportation equipment company reported. ‘The incoming tariffs are causing our products to increase in price,’ a machinery manufacturer said. A maker of electrical equipment added, ‘The uncertainty about tariffs keeps us cautious on spending, despite the strong sales right now.’”

“’Regime uncertainty’ is the economic term for worries like these. Investments take time to pay off, and when government policy constantly shifts, companies have a hard time telling whether an investment will be worth it. Investors, too, get nervous about the rules governing businesses and those surrounding the taxation of their profits. By slowing investment and innovation, regime uncertainty stifles the economy and makes it harder to attract foreign investment.”

The ” president’s frequent shifts in policy stand to have a chilling effect. In the past month alone, tariffs have been imposed, delayed, reimposed, and now — at least for some categories of goods — delayed for another month. Adding to the unease are the administration’s attacks on the justice system, which foreign investors, especially, are bound to be watching. To repeat: There is a reason that so much foreign debt is structured to be governed by U.S. law. Signaling that America’s trade policies could change at any time, and that its justice system is vulnerable to political influence, risks the country’s position as a global destination for securities issuance and investment capital.”

“The haste with which this year’s tariffs have been imposed, and Trump’s dubious rationales for imposing them, justifiably make people worry that the current trade rules could be rewritten again and again.”

“And while companies could resolve this uncertainty once and for all by making, and sourcing, products in the United States, this is a costly proposition — too costly, in some cases, to be worthwhile. If domestically made products are more expensive than foreign ones, investments might not pencil out, and some exporters might find themselves priced out of global markets. This retrenchment will ripple through an economy that already looks fragile.”

“On the same day that the Trump administration announced the tariffs would go into effect, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said it had revised its estimate of first quarter gross-domestic product downward, to -2.8 percent. Consumers say they are nervous about inflation, job prospects and, yes, tariffs.”

“[M]anufacturers think abrupt changes in trade policy are bad for business.”

=======================

Editorial, The market’s grim view of tariff shenanigans, Wash. Post (Mar.7, 2025).

Reactions to Trump’s Latest Changes on Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

On March 6, U.S. President Trump postponed until April 2 the 25% tariffs on many imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada. Around midday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau a “numb skull” and warned that this would lead to higher U.S. tariffs while Trudeau said Canadian officials were talking with U.S. counterparts about easing the tariff on some sectors.

In response to these developments, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed more than 10% off its closing high, while the Nasdaq slid 2.62% and the Dow Jones Industrials roughly 1% while the S&P 500 dropped 1.8%. And U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher for the third straight session.

Further developments undoubtedly will occur the rest of this week (and beyond?).

Conclusion. For this blogger (a U.S. citizen), these developments further raise the issue of the eptitude, knowledge and judgment of Mr. Trump.

=====================

Berwick & Lang, U.S. Delays Tariffs on Some Mexican, Canadian Goods; Stocks Decline, W.S.J. (Mar. 6, 2025); Ip, Trump’s Golden Age Begins With a Brutal Trade War, W.S.J. (Mar. 6, 2025); Trump Administration Live Updates: In reversal, Most New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada are Suspended, N.Y. Times (Mar. 6, 2025); Rennison, Tariff uncertainty leads to another unsteady day for Wall Street, N.Y. Times (Mar. 6, 2025); Assoc. Press, Trump changes course and delays some tariffs on Mexico and Canada, StarTribune (Mar. 6, 2025).

Wall Street Journal’s Criticism of Trump’s Tariff Decisions and Analysis of His Values

Wall Street Journal’s two recent editorials have criticized President Trump’s tariff decisions and the Journal has offered commentary on Trump’s State of the Union address to the Congress and the opinion of a Journal columnist (William Galston) on how Trump sees the world.

Editorial: “Trump Takes the Dumbest Tariff Plunge”[1]

“President Trump likes to cite the stock market when it’s rising as a sign of his policy success, so what does he think about Monday’s plunge? The Dow Jones Industrial Average took a 650-point header after he announced that he’ll hit Mexico and Canada on Tuesday with 25% tariffs.”

“Mr. Trump wants tariffs for their own sake, which he says will usher in a new golden age.”

“We’ve courted Mr. Trump’s ire by calling the Mexico and Canada levies the ‘dumbest’ in history, and we may have understated the point. Mr. Trump is whacking friends, not adversaries. His taxes will hit every cross-border transaction, and the North American vehicle market is so interconnected that some cars cross a border as many as eight times as they’re assembled.”

“Mr. Trump is volatile, and who knows how long he’ll keep the tariffs in place. Retaliation that hits certain states and businesses may also cause him to reconsider sooner than he imagines. Investors are trying to read this uncertainty as they also watch growing evidence of a slowing U.S. economy. Unbridled Tariff Man was always going to be a big economic risk in a second term, and here we are.” (Emphasis added.)

Editorial: “Trump’s Tariffs Whack Trump Voters”[2]

“President Trump won the Presidency a second time by promising working-class voters he’d lift their real incomes. Which makes it all the more puzzling that he’s so intent on imposing tariffs that will punish those same Americans.”

“Tariffs are taxes, and Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs are estimated to be about an annual $150 billion tax increase. Taxes are antigrowth. That’s the message investors are sending this week since Mr. Trump let his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect. The President also raised his 10% tariff on China by another 10%. Canada and China retaliated, while Mexico is holding off until Sunday.”

“The border taxes, and the uncertainty they bring, are weighing on growth and consumer confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 3.4% since Mr. Trump took office, erasing the ebullient gains that followed his November election.”

“Energy prices will rise too. Mr. Trump implicitly conceded this by reducing his tariffs to 10% on Canadian energy imports. Despite the U.S. shale fracking boom, constraints on pipeline capacity mean the Midwest and Northeast depend heavily on Canada for natural gas. That means heating bills will rise in Trump country. So will electricity prices.”

“The U.S. imports about 3,315 gigawatt hours of electricity on average from Canada each month—enough to power about 3.7 million homes. These flows help stabilize the grid and lower prices in the Northeast and Midwest. New England’s grid operator estimates the tariffs could cost the region between $66 million and $165 million a year. Energy makes up 40% of primary aluminum producers’ costs. Several Midwest foundries have closed in recent years amid rising energy prices. The Trump tariffs will harm the very workers he claims to be trying to help.”

“They will also cause pain at the pump. The U.S. is a net oil exporter, but it still imports about 6.5 million barrels a day of crude, mostly from Canada and Mexico. That’s because refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest process heavy grades. It would cost billions of dollars to retrofit them to process light blends from U.S. shale. Drivers of pickup trucks in the Midwest (where refineries depend on Canadian crude) are likely to suffer the most pain.”

“Speaking of which, we recently told you about an Anderson Economic Group analysis that estimated the 25% tariffs would raise the cost of a pickup assembled in North America by $8,000. Heavy-duty truck prices may also surge as they rely on parts from Canada and Mexico.”

“The President also professes to love American farmers, but he apparently loves tariffs more. U.S. farmers are already being squeezed by low crop prices and inflation. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) says farmers are losing money on almost every major crop planted for the third straight year.”

“Tariffs will increase their pain. About 85% of the U.S. potash supply for fertilizer is imported from Canada. China is hitting U.S. farm exports with a 15% tariff, which will let farmers in Brazil and Australia grab market share. “Even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said Tuesday.”

“Mr. Trump’s tariff spree is the triumph of ideology over, well, common sense. Let’s hope the President soon comes to his senses.” (Emphasis added.)

Commentary on Trump’s State of Union Speech[3]

Comments on Trump-Zalensky Meeting[4]

William Galston, a W.S.J. opinion columnist (politics and ideas), has offered his thoughts on what we have learned about Trump’s approach to foreign policy from his recent meeting with Volodmyr Zalensky and other episodes.

“It’s clear that the concept of a ‘rules-based international order’ is anathema to Mr. Trump. After all, following rules may force you to do something you don’t want to and may impose short-term costs on your country. Mr. Trump seems to think the current rules don’t promote America’s long-term interests.” (Emphasis added.)

Trump’s “aim, it seems, is to maximize his freedom of action at all times. This explains why he is inclined to see alliances as burdens. Bringing your allies along with you takes time, patience and compromise. It constrains your will. Why bother? Better to deal one-on-one with friend and foe alike.” (Emphasis added.)

“Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is amoral—a relentless pursuit of self-interest. Appeals to principles leave him cold, as do international relationships based on ‘shared values.’ His instincts leave him unable to understand why so many people on both sides of the Atlantic are committed to an alliance of Western democracies against the rising tide of antidemocratic forces.” (Emphasis added.)

“Indeed, it’s not clear that Mr. Trump prefers democracy to autocracy. He has praised autocratic leaders—Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, even Kim Jong Un. He admires their strength and envies their ability to act without pesky legislators and critical reporters.” (Emphasis added.)

“Strength and weakness replace right and wrong in Mr. Trump’s lexicon. What matters most is leverage. If you have it, use it to the hilt. If you don’t, you must settle for what you can get. The merits of your position don’t matter. Underscoring this point, Mr. Trump has ‘paused’ aid to Ukraine in a move to weaken its hand and force Mr. Zelensky into peace talks with Russia.” (Emphasis added.)

“Speaking of strength: Mr. Trump evidently believes that there are three great powers—China, Russia and the U.S.—and that establishing satisfactory relations among them takes priority over collateral damage to smaller countries. The idea is to return to ‘spheres of influence’: Ukraine and the ‘near abroad’ for Russia, and Panama, Canada and Greenland for the U.S.” (Emphasis added.)

“And what for China? In the ‘great powers’ context, it’s not surprising that Elbridge Colby, Mr. Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Journal that although the U.S. should be prepared to defend Taiwan, the island ‘isn’t itself of existential importance to America.’ And as Chinese pressure on the Philippines intensifies, I wonder whether Mr. Trump will honor America’s longstanding mutual-defense treaty with Manila.” (Emphasis added.)

“What is of existential importance, it seems, is economics. Mr. Trump’s view is that just about every country is ‘ripping us off’ in trade. The size of the trade deficit is proof; never mind what economists say causes it. Our allies are ripping us off in defense as well. Helping them defend themselves, he thinks, costs the U.S. without attendant benefits. Mr. Trump knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.” (Emphasis added.)

“Nonsense, his supporters reply. Mr. Trump is pursuing peace. What could be a higher value than this? But there are different kinds of peace. Lincoln spoke of a ‘just and lasting peace.’ Richard Nixon pursued ‘peace with honor.’ By contrast, Neville Chamberlain, after negotiating with Hitler in Munich in 1938, claimed he had secured ‘peace for our time.’ In reply, Winston Churchill told Chamberlain, ‘You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.’”

“On Monday Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a stirring speech in the British House of Commons, pledging large increases in the U.K. defense budget and detailing his efforts to forge a coalition of the willing in defense of Ukraine. His remarks garnered widespread praise, including from opposition party leaders and citizens across the U.K. Mr. Starmer’s practicality and moral clarity had made them proud to be British.”

“But Mr. Starmer was forthright: Even with maximum effort from Europe, his plan to secure Ukraine against future Russian aggression couldn’t succeed without an American ‘backstop.’ When the prime minister asks for one, how will Mr. Trump reply?”

Conclusion

This blogger was pleasantly surprised by these cogent remarks from the Wall Street Journal, which has the reputation of being a newspaper allied with the Republican Party.

===========================

[1] Editorial, Trump Takes the Dumbest Tariff Plunge, W.S.J. (Mar. 3, 2025).

[2] Editorial, Trump’s Tariffs Whack Trump Voters, W.S.J. (Mar. 4, 2025).

[3] Andrews, Gomez, & Dapena, An Annotated Fact-Check and Analysis of Trump’s Speech to Congress, W.S.J. (Mar. 5, 2025).

[4] Galston, The Zalensky Spat Shows Us How Trump Sees the World, W.S.J. (Mar. 4, 2025).

Why Are Cuba and the U.S. Still Mired in the Cold War?

This is the title of a lengthy article in Foreign Policy by William H. LeoGrande, professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C. and a respected commentator on the important topic of this bilateral relation.[1]

Obama’s Normalization Effort

The starting point for his analysis is a review of the 10^th anniversary of President Obama’s public announcement of his Administration’s start of normalization of relations with Cuba. Highlights of that effort were “ending the U.S. designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, reopening of both countries embassies, President Obama’s visit to Cuba, loosening of restrictions on U.S. citizens travel to the island and resumption of U.S. airlines travel to Cuba, resulting increases in U.S. travel to the island, establishing a bilateral commission to oversee the work of 18 diplomatic working groups; and Obama’s prediction of an end to the U.S. embargo” (that did not happen). Nevertheless, this effort at normalization “was immensely popular both at home and abroad. Pope Francis blessed it, the Cuban people loved it, and the general U.S. public supported it, including more than half of Cuban Americans.”[2]

Trump’s First Term’s Return to Hostile Relations

LeoGrande then notes that in his first term, Trump adopted new regulations to restrict U.S. travel to the island, impose limits on remittances, block business with Cuban companies managed by its military, disband bilateral working groups on various issues plus returned to Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.[3]

Biden’s Failure To Return to Obama’s Normalization

Leo Grande then had these brief remarks about President Biden. “During [Biden’s] campaign, he criticized the impact of Trump’s policies on Cuban families and promised to restore Obama’s policy of normalization ‘in large part.’ But he never did. Biden did adopt some ‘half-measures.’ Most importantly, he left Cuba on the lise of state sponsors of terrorism. The result has been an incoherent hybrid policy . . .and there is little indication that he will use his lame-duck period to finally keep the Cuba-policy promises he made in 2020.” [4]

Trump Redux

Leo Grande says, “Trump’s return to the White House could presage a return to maximum pressure, especially with Rubio as secretary of states and Rep. Mike Waltz as national security advisor. Rubio and Republican Cuban Americans on the Hill will surely push for it, just as they did in Trump’s first term. They will point out that 70 percent of Cuban Americans in Florida voted for him and that a recent Florida International University (FIU) poll found 72 percent of Cuban American respondents support maximum pressure to promote regime change.” [5]

“But resuming maximum pressure would stir a political hornet’s nest. After eight years of intense sanctions exacerbated by the Cuban government’s policy mistakes, the island is suffering an unprecedented economic and social crisis. Life is so hard and prospects for the future are so grim that more than a million Cubans—9 percent of the population—emigrated in the past three years. Three-quarters of them have come to the United States, 690,000 arrived undocumented at the southern border, another 100,000 admitted under Biden’s humanitarian parole program. If Trump adopts policies that deepen Cuba’s crisis, the new surge of migrants could dwarf these numbers, which would seriously complicate his plans to end irregular immigration.”

Conclusion

LeoGrande concludes his article with the following words:

“[T]he key lesson from the fleeting rapprochement that began 10 years ago on Dec. 17, 2014, is that engagement benefits both countries and that bold and determined leaders can make it happen. The enthusiasm with which Cubans, Americans, and people around the world embraced the prospect of peace between the United States and Cuba underscored just how long overdue reconciliation was. Both Obama and Raúl Castro spoke of rebuilding bridges between their countries, and both acknowledged it would be hard to put decades of animosity to rest. It has proven harder than anyone expected in the halcyon days following Dec. 17, but the ties that bind Cuba and the United States—ties of family, commerce, culture, and the shared interests that come from living next door to one another—will eventually overcome the resistance of even the most recalcitrant politicians. As Henry Kissinger recognized half a century ago, ‘perpetual antagonism’ between the United States and Cuba need not be normal.’”

“Cuban Americans are not likely to support closing the southern border to Cuban migrants, and immigration law prohibits discrimination on the basis of nationality. If the administration tries to make an exception for Cubans, the policy will certainly be challenged in court. Trump’s plans to deport undocumented immigrants could face even bigger problems. Tearing recent Cuban migrants from their families, many of whom paid traffickers thousands of dollars to bring their relatives here, would cause a political firestorm in south Florida. The FIU poll found that 72 percent of respondents support humanitarian parole for Cuban migrants and that half are planning to bring relatives still in Cuba to the United States in the future.”

“In foreign policy, tougher Cuba sanctions would complicate relations with Mexico. President Claudia Sheinbaum is supporting Cuba by sending it cheap oil. In 2023, her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, warned the Biden administration that Cuban migration spurred by U.S. sanctions was causing problems for Mexico and complicating cooperation with Washington on migration issues. Cooperation with Mexico, as Trump learned in his first term, is indispensable for limiting undocumented migration and narcotics trafficking across the southern border, which are all top priorities for him.”

“Escalating sanctions on Cuba could also complicate Trump’s desire to improve relations with Russia. Moscow has grown closer with Havana in recent years, expanding relations beyond economic cooperation into a ‘strategic partnership,’ as the two countries describe it. Cuba has defended Russia’s rationale for its invasion of Ukraine, making Havana a valuable ally in the Global South. And Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly values having an outpost in the United States “near abroad,” if only as a geopolitical thorn in Washington’s side. In short, Russia has a clear interest in the survival of the Cuban regime.”

“I f sanctions succeed in destabilizing Cuba to the point that the state fails and social violence erupts, the pressure from Cuban Americans for U.S. military intervention will be immense. Cuban American elected officials demanded intervention in July 2021, in response to the Cuban government’s suppression of nationwide demonstrations, even though the largely peaceful protests only lasted a few days. U.S. intervention would poison relations with Latin America for a generation.”

“But the key lesson from the fleeting rapprochement that began 10 years ago on Dec. 17, 2014, is that engagement benefits both countries and that bold and determined leaders can make it happen. The enthusiasm with which Cubans, Americans, and people around the world embraced the prospect of peace between the United States and Cuba underscored just how long overdue reconciliation was. Both Obama and Raúl Castro spoke of rebuilding bridges between their countries, and both acknowledged it would be hard to put decades of animosity to rest. It has proven harder than anyone expected in the halcyon days following Dec. 17, but the ties that bind Cuba and the United States—ties of family, commerce, culture, and the shared interests that come from living next door to one another—will eventually overcome the resistance of even the most recalcitrant politicians. As Henry Kissinger recognized half a century ago, “perpetual antagonism” between the United States and Cuba need not be normal.”

Reactions

This blog recently has been publishing posts about the horrible times currently being suffered in Cuba and hence the need for the U.S. to return to the normalization efforts of President Obama/ [6]

================================

[1] Leo Grande, Why Are Cuba and the U.S. Still Mired in the Cold War?, Foreign Policy (Dec. 12, 2024).

[2] See the posts listed in the following sections of List of Posts to dwkcommentaries—Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20]: U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2014; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2015; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2016; and U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2017.

[3] See the posts listed in the following sections of that List of Posts: U.S. (Trump) & Cuba Relations, 2016-17; and U.S. (Trump) and Cuba, 2018.

[4] I concur in LeoGrande’s analysis and conclusion.

[5] Another concurrence.

[6] E.g., U.S. Congressmen Ask President Biden To Provide Sanctions Relief and Other Aid to Cuba (Nov. 20, 2024); Cuba’s Unstoppable Spiral of Misery, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 4, 2024);Diario de Cuba’s Editorial on Its 15^th Anniversary, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 5, 2024); Will Cuba Lose Almost Half of Its Population by 2100?, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec.14, 2024).

U.S. Excludes Cuba from Its “Visa Lottery” for Fiscal 2026

The U.S. has excluded Cuba from the 2026 Diversity Immigrant Visa Program (“Visa Lottery”) for fiscal 2026. [1]

This was done, said the U.S., because more than 50,000 Cubans have emigrated to the U.S. in the past five years. The other countries similarly excluded are Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Venezuela and Vietnam.

Under another U.S. program (humanitarian parole), “as of last July, some 106,757 Cubans had benefited from this process and some 104,130 had already traveled to the US.

================================

[1] Cubans are left out of the lottery for immigrant visas to the US, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 28, 2024).

Cubans Ask for Acceleration of U.S. Humanitarian Parole Process

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has adopted a program for certain nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela to come to the U.S. for “a temporary period of parole for up to two years for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit.”[1]

Requirements for Such Parole

The requirements for such “foreign nationals” are the following:

They “are outside the United States and lack U.S. entry documents;”
“They have a [financial] supporter in the United States . . . who agrees to provide them with financial support for the duration of their parole in the United States;”
They “undergo and clear robust security vetting;”
They “meet other eligibility criteria;” and
They “warrant a favorable exercise of discretion.”

According to the U.S. Department, “Case processing times vary. USCIS and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are reviewing and processing cases as thoroughly and efficiently as possible. The U.S. government will provide advance travel authorization for up to 30,000 noncitizens to come to the United States each month to seek parole on a case-by-case basis under these processes.”

“Due to high interest in these processes, we are updating this process because the number of supporters who have submitted Form I-134A is significantly higher than the 30,000 monthly advance travel authorizations available. It is intended to maintain a fair, equitably balanced, and available pathway for all beneficiaries of a Form I-134A to move forward through the review process and seek travel authorization.”

“Under the new review process, we will randomly select about half of the monthly total of Forms I-134A, regardless of filing date, from the entire pending workload to review. We will review the other half of the monthly total based on when the case was submitted under the first-in, first-out method, which prioritizes the oldest Forms I-134A for review.”

“During the process, several steps must be completed, including robust security vetting, which will depend on action taken by potential supporters and beneficiaries. In the initial part of the process, we will review and provide responses to the potential supporter’s Form I-134A as quickly as possible. Once we confirm the Form I-134A, we will contact the beneficiary via email with instructions on how to create a USCIS online account and add their case. In the online account, the beneficiary reviews their biographical information and completes the necessary attestations (including attestations for eligibility and vaccine requirements) for themselves and travel group members and submits the information to CBP.”

“The beneficiary must also take and submit their photo within the CBP One mobile app. After they submit their photo, the process transitions to CBP. CBP will vet available biographic information and the facial photograph to determine whether to authorize the beneficiary’s travel to the United States to seek parole. CBP will then send the travel authorization determination to USCIS to post it to the beneficiary’s USCIS online account. If CBP approves the travel authorization, the beneficiary is responsible for arranging and funding their own airline travel to the United States. If CBP approves travel authorization, it is generally valid for 90 days.”

Current Status of Cuban Applications for Such Parole[2]

Through the end of April 2024, 95,500 Cubans had been granted such parole, and 91,100 already have traveled to the U.S. on such parole.

However, there already are many more such Cuban applications, and on May 26, 2024, there was a demonstration in Miami by Cuban American families protesting the long periods of time for U.S. government action on such pending applications. In addition, in the first quarter of 2024, 10,446 Cuban irregular immigrants were intercepted in Mexico and returned to Cuba.

Conclusion

As always, comments with corrections and amplifications are always welcome.

======================

[1] U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services, Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans; U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services, Frequently Asked Questions About the Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans.

[2] Cuban families ask in Miami for the acceleration of humanitarian parole process, Diario de Cuba (May 27, 2024).

Central American Countries’ Northward Busing of South American Immigrants

This October, the Costa Rican government declared a national emergency and formed a plan with Panama to shuttle migrants [on buses] from its southern border to its northern one. Costa Rican officials say the busing program has removed . . . [a migrant encampment], as well as alleviated the strain on border communities and provided people a safer alternative to paying human smugglers. A similar busing program has been adopted by Honduras.[1]

This Costa Rican program is in response to a “doubling the number of crossings from [200,000] last year and leading to a massive tent encampment along Costa Rica’s borders, complaints from business owners and a rise in abusive smuggling operations.”

This development “has raised alarms in the United States, which has called on its Latin American allies to deter people from making the treacherous journey north by encouraging them to apply for refugee status closer to their home countries.” U.S. officials have also argued that the busing routes only incentivize more migrants to flee their homes and make the dangerous journey to the U.S. border. Their Central American counterparts argue migrants are already set on traveling to the United States and the busing system is making the journey less dangerous.”

“The busing program is not free, and has added one more fee to the many that migrants are confronted with on their costly journey north. . . . In Panama, each person must pay $60 to be bused to Costa Rica’s main terminal. They then must pay another $30 to board a shuttle that will take them to the Nicaraguan border. The fees are collected by the bus companies, which are licensed by the governments.”

This busing “can also be dangerous. Earlier this year, at least 39 people were killed when a bus ferrying migrants through Panama fell from a cliff. Last month, 18 migrants died in a bus crash in Mexico and a crash in Honduras left four dead and a dozen injured.”

It should also be mentioned that Panama is in the midst of violent protests about a government contract that allows a Canadian company to expand its copper mining operations here and whether the country should preserve its natural resources or develop them.[2]

=====================================

[1] Youngs & Bolanos, A New Answer for Migrants in Central America: Bus Them North, N.Y. Times (Nov, 8, 2023).

[2] Salcedo, Why ordinarily quiet Panama has erupted in deadly protests, Wash. Post (Nov. 8, 2023).

Worsening of Cuba’s Economic and Humanitarian Programs

Cuba has been experiencing frequent electrical blackouts that have been intensifying after the G77+China summit held on the island (in mid-September). These outages last six to seven hours and can occur several times during the day.[1]

At night, people cannot stay in their homes because of the heat and go outside to sit on stools on sidewalks and talk with neighbors. Refrigerators break and cannot be repaired for lack of parts. A self-employed operator of a daycare center said, “We are without food, without medicine, without money and without electricity. We are going from bad to worse, we are walking two steps forward and ten steps back.”

On September 27, the Cuban government announced that blackouts due to fuel shortages in Cuba , which are added to the frequent breakdowns in the island’s thermoelectric plants, will extend in the coming days because the country will not receive the necessary oil shipments.

In June-July Mexico sent 1,050,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba free of charge. But Mexican financial issues are forcing it to terminate such free shipments.

On a Cuban television program Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Alejandro Gil Fernández, and Vicente de la O Levy, Minister of Energy and Mines, said that these blackouts will also affect passenger transportation and economic activity, as well as the distribution of water in pipes , on which many communities on the Island depend for supply, among other vital activities.

These officials also said “We will not be able to maintain the same levels” of transportation and instead will promote teleworking. The current situation is due to the deficit in electricity generation due to fuel shortages. Some of the imported fuel was of poor quality that requires mixing and complicates distribution.

Senor Fernandez said that the regime does not have foreign currency to pay for the import of products included in the increasingly scarce food ration book . In October there will be pressure to meet the deliveries of milk and bread for young children. Part of this problem is due to this year’s inflation exceeding 20%.

Reactions

For a fuller understanding of this situation on the island, we will have to pay close attention to ongoing news.

=========================

[1] Perez, The blackout crisis worsens: “the power outages have now lasted only two hours. Diario de Cuba (Sept. 27, 2023);More blackouts, less transportation and teleworking: the fuel shortage will worsen in Cuba, the government announces, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 28, 2023); The meager basic basket at risk: the regime says it is unable to import food and pay in foreign currency, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 28, 2023) ;Reyes, The ‘contingency’ is coming: the Cuban Government announces a new twist to the crisis, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 27, 2023);Mexico will not be able to give more oil to Cuba, its Government announces, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 27, 2023);Reuters, Cuban officials warn of increased blackouts due to fuel shortages, Guardian (Sept. 28, 2023); Martin, Mexico Mulls Charging Cuba for Oil as Cost of Donating It Climbs, Wash. Post (Sept. 26, 2023).

Increasing Migrant Crossings at U.S. Border Call for Legal Changes

This July more than 130,000 migrants were apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border. The fastest growth in this immigration, with 40,000 of the total, was in the Border Patrol’s Tucson sector, which comprises most of Arizona, which was the most since April 2008. U.S. authorities attribute this increase to smugglers now guiding migrants to the border across the most remote and harsh stretches of the Arizona desert between Yuma and Tucson to avoid detection. [1]

Crossing in desert areas in the summer can be deadly, with ground temperatures well exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit at times, officials say. Such extreme conditions have led to a spike in 911 calls. Agents responding to such calls for help routinely find dozens or even hundreds of migrants in need of aid and trying to surrender to arriving border agents.

Cuba is experiencing growth in out-migration. Social-media advertisements on the island have recently increased offering door-to-door transportation to the U.S. through flights from Cuba to Nicaragua and ground travel across Central America and Mexico. Although new Biden policies require Cubans to have a U.S. citizen-sponsor for legal entry to the U.S., many Cubans do not have such sponsors and some officials say, “For ordinary Cubans, finding a sponsor who has money in the U.S. is Mission Impossible.”[2]

Another indication of this migrant pressure is the recent guilty plea by the owners of a Williamsburg, Virginia cleaning business who operated a “labor trafficking enterprise” that smuggled over 100 migrants from El Salvador, including minors, and forced them to work in U.S. under threats of violence and deportation.[3]

Recommended Changes

Andrea R. Flores, who served as an immigration policy adviser in the Obama and Biden administrations, says, “Until Congress finds the political will to act, the president should use his authority to relieve pressure on our asylum system and give migrants the ability to legally work once they reach the United States.”[4] To that end, she recommends the following:

“While far from perfect, the Biden administration’s parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans could serve as a model for what is possible. This policy provides safer options to people who are unlikely to meet the legal requirements for asylum, but who still have urgent humanitarian reasons to flee their homes.”
The President should “use his authority to grant Temporary Protected Status to the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans who lack work authorization, which would be a boon for immigrants and the communities that welcome them. A 2023 analysisby FWD.us, a bipartisan group founded by American business leaders that favors more humane immigration reform, found that T.P.S. holders contribute $22 billion in wages annually to the U.S. economy.”
“The administration should also act quickly to increase the number of appointments at ports of entry; add new countries eligible for parole; lift caps on countries with urgent resettlement needs, as it did for Ukraine; and invest resources in adjudicating asylum cases expeditiously.”

Noted commentator, Fareed Zakaria, points out the obvious: “America’s immigration system is broken.” [5]Therefore, he says the following: “The laws and rules around asylum must be fixed so that immigration authorities can focus on the small number of genuine asylum seekers while compelling the rest to seek other legal means of entry. At the same time, it’s important to note that the United States is facing a drastic shortfall of labor and must expand legal immigration in many areas for just that reason. We urgently need to attract the world’s best technically skilled people so that they can push forward the information and biotech revolutions that are transforming the economy and life itself. With unemployment rates around 50-year lows, it is obvious that we need more workers in many sectors of the economy, from agriculture to hospitality. If this is done in a legal and orderly manner, Americans will welcome the new workers.”

Therefore, he says Biden “should propose an immigration bill that is genuinely bipartisan and forces compromises from both sides. It would be one more strong dose of evidence that policy can triumph over populism.” Good luck on doing that.

==========================

[1] Perez & Caldwell, Migrant Crossings on the Rise Again at U.S. Border,W.S.J. (Aug. 12, 2023); Miroff & Sacchetti, Border arrests surged in July, a blow to Biden immigration plan, Wash. Post (Aug. 1, 2023).

[2] Perez & Caldwell, Migrant Crossings on the Rise Again at U.S. Border, W.S.J. (Aug. 12, 2023).

[3] Paul, Laundry company owners guilty of trafficking migrants, minors for labor, Wash. Post (Aug. 13, 2023).

[4] Flores, We Know What Doesn’t Work at the Border. Here’s a Better Solution, N.Y. Times (Aug. 10, 2023).

[5] Zakaria, Immigration can be fixed. So why aren’t we doing it?, Wash. Post (Aug. 11, 2023).

Tag: Mexico

Washington Post’s Criticism of Trump’s Tariffs

Reactions to Trump’s Latest Changes on Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Wall Street Journal’s Criticism of Trump’s Tariff Decisions and Analysis of His Values

More Cuban Electrical Problems

U.S. Excludes Cuba from Its “Visa Lottery” for Fiscal 2026

Cubans Ask for Acceleration of U.S. Humanitarian Parole Process

Central American Countries’ Northward Busing of South American Immigrants

Worsening of Cuba’s Economic and Humanitarian Programs

Increasing Migrant Crossings at U.S. Border Call for Legal Changes