Tag: Cuban emmigration

Diario de Cuba’s Editorial on Its 15th Anniversary

On December 4 , Diario de Cuba, a daily Internet Cuban diary (in Spanish and English) published in Madrid, Spain, celebrated its 15th anniversary with the following editorial.[1]

“Exactly 15 years ago, the first news and articles from this newspaper appeared on the screens of some readers. Over the course of this decade and a half, changes have taken place in Cuba, but not those necessary for the country’s democratization.”

“Fidel Castro died—which for many seemed not only unimaginable, but impossible—and something else happened that had seemed impossible: the people took to the streets to protest their living conditions. The regime in Havana opened an embassy in Washington, Washington opened an embassy in Havana, and the rapprochement between the two countries, arranged by President Obama, was ultimately sabotaged by the Cuban regime.”

“With Miguel Díaz-Canel chosen by Raúl Castro, the first revolutionary leader who did not participate in the armed struggle rose to the presidency of the country and the secretariat of its sole party. Almost the country’s entire productive economy passed into the hands of the military conglomerate GAESA , which has set about building hotels while ignoring the downturn in tourism and ruling out investments much needed for the Cuban population.”

“The country became even more indebted and, in a vicious circle, persisted in its tradition of shirking its financial obligations. The authorities implemented the most ill-advised monetary policies possible, so inflation runs rampant in Cuba. Medical professionals and technicians have been, and continue to be, exploited by means of contracts lucrative for the regime but exploitive for them.”

“In response to the popular protests, the regime ratcheted up its repression against dissidents, activists and independent journalists, as the Justice system was turned into an ever stronger mechanism of repression , and the number of political prisoners grew. Censorship of thought and the arts intensified, and those young artists who protested ended up in prison or having to go into exile.”

“The migratory wave in the history of the country began, and the emigration of the youngest Cubans, along with low birth rates, has contributed to a largest acute aging of the population . Every day it is more and more difficult to have children in Cuba. Elderly Cubans are more vulnerable than ever. The regime used to have a “monopoly” on violence, but now cities and towns are no longer safe. Public insecurity is on the rise, gangs of young people are forming, and VAW is claiming more and more victims.”

“Each new state measure manages to render agriculture and livestock even more unproductive. Cuba, once the world’s largest exporter of sugar, has been fallen apart, with the country now importing sugar for several years. The only plant that grows in Cuba is marabou, and farmers determined to make the land produce are hampered by new restrictions. Meanwhile, no less onerous burdens weigh on entrepreneurs, who have been allowed, reluctantly, to start MSMEs.”

“Health and education, which for decades were the regime’s showpieces, have collapsed, their decline evident in the unhealthy state of hospital facilities and students’ poor results. Sports, another point of pride for socialism, are suffering a similar fate. Not even baseball is spared. Just as Cuba ceased to be a sugar powerhouse, it has now ceased to be a baseball power too.”

“In the last 15 years the regime has been dismantling the welfare system with which it had mitigated social inequalities, to the point that it no longer addresses the fate of the most disadvantaged . Today we can talk about the end of the grocery store book and rationing card. With blackout after blackout, the island has been sunk in darkness, and the national electrical system can no longer hold up. The last hurricanes to hit the island have highlighted the ineffectiveness of its on-effective civil defense system.”

“Old, dilapidated buildings continue, inexorably, to collapse, and the construction of new homes is an unresolved problem in every government plan. Vagrants, homeless people, and children who work, or beg, are becoming more common on Cuban streets. Meanwhile, his heirs of the regime’s elite boast on social media about what their parents have stolen, and continue to steal.”

“The Cuban regime cultivates alliances with nations like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and continues to meddle in Venezuela’s politics. It no longer operates based on any ideology, but rather on the exercise of brute force, and continues to mutate towards a dictatorship shamelessly open to benefiting a fortunate few.”

“Over the course of this last decade and a half, DIARIO DE CUBA has been there, studying and covering the scenarios briefly summarized above. In celebration of its birthday, last October the “For the Cuba of Tomorrow” DDC Forum was held in Madrid. Through it, and its day-to-day work, DDC demonstrates its commitment to the Cuba of the future.”

“On this anniversary, all that remains is to thank all our contributors and readers, and to renew this publication’s commitment to Cuba and to Cuban democracy.”

Reactions

As a U.S. citizen with some connections with Cuba, including three visits to the island at the start of this century, conversations with Cubans who have visited the U.S. and carefully following the published news about Cuba, especially those in Diario de Cuba, and writing blog posts about same,[2] I concur in most of this editorial’s observations.

However, although agreeing that U.S. President Obama had taken steps for “rapprochement between the two countries,” I think it is overstatement to claim that this effort was “ultimately sabotaged by the Cuban regime.” Obama’s successor (President Donald Trump) reversed some of those steps and the whole psychology of improving the relationship and even President Biden has not returned to the Obama effort.[3]

Recently a group of 15 U.S. Congress Representatives wrote a letter to President Biden urgently requesting “immediate action to stabilize Cuba’s energy infrastructure and provide critical humanitarian assistance. The Cuban people are currently facing widespread blackouts and an escalating energy crisis, exacerbated by the impact of Hurricane Rafael. The situation is not only causing immense suffering for the Cuban people but also poses serious risks to U.S. national security interests. If left unaddressed, the crisis will almost certainly fuel increased migration, strain U.S. border management systems, and fully destabilize the already-strained Caribbean region.”[4]

Therefore, these Congressmen “strongly” recommended “removing Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) list” and suspending “sanctions that hinder the flow of humanitarian assistance, including restoring the EAR license exception to allow donations to Cuban health and humanitarian relief entities.” This blogger endorsed those recommendations plus asking President Biden to “eliminate the U.S. embargo of Cuba. . . .“

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[1]  Editorial: DIARIO DE CUBA Turns 15, Diario de Cuba (Dec. 4, 2024)..

[2]  See List of Posts to dwkcommentaries—Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20}.The labor of manually preparing updates to this list has discouraged the blogger from creating similar subsequent lists.

[3] See the posts listed in these sections (U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2014; U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2015); U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2016);and U.S. (Obama) & Cuba Relations (Normalization), 2017; U.S. (Trump) & Cuba Relations, 2016-17) of List of Posts to dwkcommentaries– Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20}.

[4] U.S. Congressmen Ask President Biden To Provide Sanctions Relief and Other Aid to Cuba, dwkcommentaries.com (Nov. 20, 2024).

Cuban Realities Adversely Affecting Normalization with the U.S.

Underlying Cuba’s desire for normalization with the U.S. and its ability to achieve this goal are two realities that do not receive the attention they deserve. First, Cuba has a rapidly aging and declining population. Second, Cuba has very little cash to purchase goods and services in international markets. Both of these adversely affect Cuba’s desire and ability to achieve normalization.

Aging and Declining Cuban Population

Cuba already has the oldest population in all of Latin America. Experts predict that 50 years from now, its population will have fallen by a third and more than 40 percent of the country will be older than 60.[1]

This is a demographic crisis with both economic and political consequences. The aging population will require a vast health care system, the likes of which the state cannot afford. And without a viable work force, the cycle of flight and wariness about Cuba’s future is even harder to break, despite the country’s halting steps to open itself up to the outside world.

“We are all so excited about the trade and travel that we have overlooked the demographics problem,” said Hazel Denton, a former World Bank economist who has studied Cuban demographics. “This is a significant issue.”

Young people are fleeing the island in big numbers, fearful that normalization of relations with the U.S. will lead to the end of a policy that allows Cubans who make it to the U.S. to become naturalized U.S. citizens.

Over the past two years, an estimated 100,000 Cubans have streamed into the U.S., legally and illegally. Most of them fly to another country in Latin America and then make treacherous journeys by land to the U.S. border with Mexico. Thousands of others obtain family reunification visas and travel directly to the U.S. Those without money or helpful relatives flee Cuba on rafts.

The surge began in 2013 after the Cuban government eliminated the need for exit permits, and got bigger after Washington and Havana announced plans in late 2014 to end 50 years of hostility and re-establish relations.

For the fiscal year that just ended on September 30, nearly 4,500 Cubans reached U.S. soil in rafts, were caught at sea by the U.S. Coast Guard or were otherwise thwarted while trying to flee.

The younger people remaining on the island are reluctant to have children, citing the strain of raising an infant in a country where the average state salary is just $20 a month. Scant job opportunities, a shortage of available goods and a dearth of sufficient housing have encouraged younger Cubans to wait to start a family, sometimes indefinitely. In addition, abortion is legal, free, without stigma and commonly practiced. Cuba’s reported birth rate is one of the lowest in the world while its abortion rate is one of the highest.

One possible response to this demographic challenge is for the Cuban government to encourage the vast Cuban expatriate population to come home. But such an effort, in my opinion, would have to be backed by realistic opportunities to thrive and succeed economically, and this does not appear likely in the near future at least.

Another facet of Cuba’s aging population is the dying of those who fought with Fidel and Ché in the Revolution of 1959. In short, “the revolution and its heroes are fading.” According to a journalist, “many younger Cubans feel the weight of the revolution as a challenge to their future rather than as its foundation.” They “have little patience for revolutionary rhetoric, and they are frustrated by the dearth of economic opportunity in the country, despite the diplomatic thaw with Washington. They want to see change in their lives, and revolutionary talk sounds to many like a distraction from their struggles.”[2]

Cuba’s Financial Problems

Cuba is now finding it difficult to purchase goods and services from foreign suppliers. It has little cash to do so. This is resulting from low prices for nickel, which is one of its main exports; the economic crisis in Venezuela, which is one of Cuba’s major allies; and a Cuban drought. These adverse factors apparently are not offset by increased foreign tourism on the island after the U.S.-Cuba rapprochement. State companies are being forced to cut imports and to seek more liberal payment terms from foreign suppliers.[3]

The financial arrangements with Venezuela are complicated. First, Cuba receives oil on favorable terms and refines and resells some of it in a joint venture with its socialist ally, but prices for refined products are down in tandem with crude prices. Second, Cuba sends medical professionals to Venezuela, but experts believe the amount paid to Cuba for their services is tied to oil prices, meaning Venezuela would pay less to Cuba when such prices are down.

Another sign of these economic challenges is Cuba’s recent agreement with Spain to restructure Cuba’s short-term debts. Spain forgave Cuba for its defaulted interest and principal; restructured the residual principal payments for a period of ten years; and granted a three-year grace period for repayment of principal. The total principal of this debt was 201.5 million Euros.[4]

Earlier other countries also wrote off significant Cuban indebtedness: Russia, $32 billion in July 2014; Mexico, $487 million in December 2013; Japan, $1.4 billion in 2012; and China, $6 billion (restructuring) in 2010. Cuba’s debt problem with Japan, however, was not resolved after the 2012 agreement when Cuba failed to make payments thereunder, and this year the two countries are trying to resolve the debt issue as they seek to expand trade.[5]

Conclusion

These two realities, in my opinion, help to explain why normalization is not producing immediate expansion of business between the U.S. and Cuba.[6] Yes, the U.S. embargo, which is still in place, adversely affects Cuba’s foreign trade and should be ended by the U.S. as soon as possible. But ending the embargo does not directly affect these two realities that are major impediments to such trade.

Once again I invite comments of supplementation or correction, especially on Cuba’s foreign indebtedness.

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[1] Ahmed, An Abundance of Love but a Lack of Babies, N.Y. Times (Oct. 27, 2015); Assoc. Press, Historic Surge in Cuban Emigration Divides Families, N.Y. Times (Nov. 6, 2015); Dominguez, What You Might Not Know About the Cuban Economy, Harv. Bus. Rev. (Aug. 15, 2015); CIA World Factbook: Cuba.

[2] Ahmed, Cuban Revolutionaries Hope Their Legacy Won’t Fade Away, N.Y. times (Nov. 7, 2015).

[3] Reuters, ‘There is no money:’ cash-strapped Cuba is forced to cut vital imports, Guardian (Oct. 16, 2015); Three million tourist arrivals: A target in sight, Granma (Nov. 11, 2015) (three million tourists by second week of November, more than 90 days earlier than 2014); Cruise ship tourism expanding in Cuba, Granma (Nov. 9, 2015) (20,000 cruise ship visitors to Cuba so far this year).

[4] Spain agreed with Cuba to refinance short-term debt of the island, El Pais (Nov. 3, 2015)  This agreement may have resulted from a June 2015 Cuban agreement with the Paris Club of 16 wealthy nations, including Spain, that fixed Cuba’s total indebtedness to them at $15 billion (13.7 billion Euros) and that was seen as an important step towards renegotiating those debts. (Reuters, Cuba and Paris Club members agree on debt total of $15bln (June 8, 2015)

[5] Russia writes off 90% of Cuba’s debt ahead of Putin’s ‘big tour’ to Latin America, RT (July 12, 2014); Russia writes off $32bn Cuban debt in show of brotherly love, Guardian (July 10, 2014); Cuba; Mexico: 70% of Debt Forgiven, Global Legal Monitor (Nov. 8, 2013); Russia, Japan and others want to do business in Cuba, Internet in Cuba (May 4, 2015); Forte, Cuba and Japan expanding economic and trade ties, Granma (Nov. 9, 2015); Reuters, China restructures Cuban debt, backs reform (Dec. 23, 2010).

[6] E.g., Reuters, U.S. Companies Drawn to Cuba, Unsure if Profits Will Follow, N.Y. Times (Nov. 6, 2015).