Tag: China

Skilled Immigrants Are Entering U.S. Illegally 

In recent years the U.S. numbers of undocumented migrants from India and China have increased dramatically. For example, in 2023 there were more than 65,000 such immigrants, most of whom are skilled. [1]

They thereby avoid  the difficulties of doing so legally by first obtaining a U.S. job offer and then applying for a U.S. work visa (H-1B), which is time consuming and full of uncertainty. This year, for example, there were 470,000 such applications, but Congress has imposed an annual limit of 85,000 for same, resulting in a lottery.

The other option for such foreigners is to apply for asylum and five months later obtain a work permit while waiting years for a hearing on the asylum request.  In fiscal 2022, 250,000 such work permits were issued.

There are many ideas for resolving these problems: (a) creating a “bridge visa” for all skill levels for states where they are most needed without a numeric cap or a  lottery; (b) creating a “heartland visa” for resettlement in states suffering population loss; and (c) creating visas for a list of occupations facing critical labor shortages.

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[1] Shou, How the broken immigration system is pushing skilled workers to enter illegally, Wash, Post (July 29, 2024)

 

Another Indictment of the Cuban Economy

Cuba Siglo 21 has published a new dossier by economist Emilio Morales that provides a statistical x-ray of the collapse of the regime’s system on the island. [1]

“The Cuban economy is in a critical phase due to the drastic fall of more than 50% of its main sources of income: export of medical services, remittances and tourism. This financial collapse has accelerated the countdown of the governance regime.”

  • “The export of medical services, the country’s main source of income, has suffered a 78.12% dropsince its peak in 2013, when it reached 10.42 billion dollars.”
  • “Remittances, the second largest source of income, have also declined significantly. In 2023, remittances totaled $1,972.56 million, a drop of 3.31% compared to 2022 and 46.93% compared to 2019, before the pandemic. Morales attributes the decline to mass emigration that began after the crackdown on protests on July 11, 2021, which ‘has not only reduced remittances but has also resulted in a significant flight of human capital.’”
  • “Tourism, one of Cuba’s most promising industries, has failed to recover post-pandemic. Morales recalls that in 2023 Cuba received 2,436,979 tourists, a figure comparable to that of 2009, well below the expected levels. The economist points out that ‘the situation is aggravated by the decrease in Cuban tourists living abroad, a key segment for the Cuban tourism economy.’”
  • “The regime’s commitment to attracting Russian tourists has not compensated for the loss of European tourism, affected by the Cuban government’s support for Russia in the war against Ukraine. The arrival of tourists from the five main European issuers (Italy, France, Germany, Spain and England) has decreased by 67.45% in the last five years.”
  • “The Cuban regime has proven incapable of implementing effective mechanisms to transform the economy and overcome the current multi-systemic crisis. The fall of the three main sources of income by more than 50% reflects the total dysfunctionality of the governance regime.”

“Even the regime’s allied governments are not willing to carry out a large-scale economic rescue. The governance models of Russia, China or Vietnam have not been adopted, and the power elite in Cuba continues to resist any change.”

“Mass emigration has decapitalized the country financially and in terms of human resources, and the metamorphosis of Castroism into a mafia state, with GAESA as the center of true power, has led to the destruction of industries and the loss of political capital.”

“The Cuban Communist Party (PCC) has no retraining pool, with many members who no longer believe in the party or its ideology.”

“The economic crisis has had devastating effects on all sectors of society.There is an alarming shortage of teachers, health personnel , workers in the sugar industry, tourism and the energy system. Even the justice system is affected, with the Supreme Court of Justice operating at only 69% of its capacity.”

“With the celebration of the 71st anniversary of the attack on the Moncada barracks, Cuba finds itself in a deep humanitarian crisis, with 89% of the population living in poverty and 1.79 million citizens having left the country in recent years.”

Morales concludes, “the Cuban system has collapsed. The Cuban state is dysfunctional and bankrupt. The Cuban government is mediocre and lacks leadership. The Cuban power elite is impervious to criticism. Without some kind of radical transformation to prevent or postpone it, the final collapse, by one route or another, is inevitable.”[2]

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[1] 71 years after July 26: ‘The Cuban Economy has collapsed,’ Diario  de Cuba (July 25, 2024).  Cuba Siglo 21 is “a nongovernmental think tank based in Madrid, Spain that serves the forces that promote change in Cuba towards an open, democratic and prosperous society supported by the rule of law and a free market. ” (About Cuba Siglo 21.)

[2] See also ‘Distortion’ of employment in Cuba: army of inspectors, thousands less farmers, teachers and doctors, Diario de Cuba (July 25, 2024); The regime is forced to stop falsifying data on Cuba’s demographic crisis, Diario de Cuba (July 24, 2024); Industrial devastation in Cuba is worse than the agricultural catastrophe, Diario de Cuba (July 23, 2024).

 

 

U.S. Congressional Hearing About Cuban Private Sector

On June 27,  the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing regarding  “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean“ that focused on the Cuban private sector [1]

Testimony of Eric Jacobstein

The lead witness for this hearing was Eric Jacobstein, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department.

He testified that the United States Government is committed to continuing to promote the growth of the private sector in Cuba and supporting the economic well-being of the people, in the face of strengthening Havana’s relations with Moscow and Beijing.”

“Today, more than a third of the Cuban workforce works in one of the more than 11,000 private companies on the Island. The Cuban people still see the United States as a preferred partner. Therefore, we cannot give space to Russia or China and we must continue to encourage private sector growth.”

“The private sector offers ordinary Cubans the opportunity for a better life.”

Testimony of Greg Howell

Also testifying was Greg Howell,  the deputy administrator for the Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). He said this entity has provided for the training of hundreds of journalists, “whose work in major international media has countered the Cuban regime’s manipulation of information, documenting the difficult conditions on the island and highlighting human rights violations by the [Cuban] Government.”

“For nearly 30 years, across four U.S. administrations, U.S. assistance has helped the people of Cuba in the face of an oppressive government, supporting human rights, fundamental freedoms, and democratic values ​​by strengthening civil society and providing a better access to information.”

USAID, “responding to a request from Cuban authorities, . . provided personal protective equipment for [Cuban] firefighters in September 2022, more than a month after the fire that broke out on August 5 at the Matanzas Supertanker Base and caused the deaths of 17 people, mainly young people who were performing their mandatory military service.

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[1] The US is committed to ‘continuing to promote the growth of the private sector’ in Cuba, Diario de Cuba (June 28, 2024) ;

House of Representatives, Foreign Affairs Comm., Subcommittee Hearing Announcement: “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean (June 20, 2024)

House of Representatives, Foreign Affairs Comm., Subcommittee Hearing, “The Curse of Socialism in Central America and the Caribbean (June 27, 2024)

 

Will the World’s Population Cease To Expand?  

This blog has published many posts about the U.S. currently experiencing a declining and aging population and seeing one solution in encouraging immigration from other countries that have increasing and younger populations.[1]

This perspective is complicated by some population experts seeing a future peak in world population and a subsequent shrinkage in same without reaching a plateau and stable population.[2]

Dean Spears’ Opinion

Dean Spears (an economist at the Population Research Center at the University of Texas, Austin) asserts that various experts agree that world population soon will peak and then shrink. Here are those experts’ opinions on the timing of such a peak: U.N. demographers, 2080s; Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2070s; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, 2060s.

The common element in these projections is families having smaller family sizes. The main reason, Spears claims, is “people want smaller families than people did in the past. Humanity is building a better, freer world with more opportunities for everyone, especially for women. That progress deserves everyone’s continued efforts. That progress also means that, for many of us, the desire to build a family can clash with other important goals, including having a career, pursuing projects and maintaining relationships.”

These competing interests could lead to “backsliding on reproductive freedom—by limiting abortion rights, for example. But Spears says, “low birthrates are no reason to reverse progress toward a more free, diverse and equal world.”

Spears concludes this analysis with the following statement: “Humanity needs a compassionate, factual and fair conversation about how to respond to depopulation and how to share the burdens of creating each future generation. The way to have that conversation is to start paying attention now.” (Emphasis added.)

Wall Street Journal’s Perspective

The Wall Street Journal begins its article, “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Many government leaders see this as a matter of national urgency. They worry about shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth and underfunded pensions; and the vitality of a society with ever-fewer children. Smaller populations come with diminished global clout, raising questions in the U.S., China and Russia about their long-term standings as superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Some demographers see this as part of a ‘second demographic transition,’ a society wide reorientation toward individualism that puts less emphasis on marriage and parenthood, and makes fewer or no children more acceptable.”

According to Professor Melissa Kearney of the University of Maryland, “state-level differences in parental abortion notification laws, unemployment, Medicaid availability, housing costs, contraceptive usage, religiosity, child-care costs and student debt could explain almost none of the decline. We suspect that this shift reflects broad societal changes that are hard to measure or quantify. . . . If people have a preference for spending time building a career, on leisure, relationships outside the home, that’s more likely to come in conflict with childbearing. Meanwhile, time-use data show that mothers and fathers, especially those that are highly educated, spend more time with their children than in the past. The intensity of parenting is a constraint.”

“With no reversal in birthrates in sight, the attendant economic pressures are intensifying. Since the pandemic, labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries. That will only worsen in coming years as the past crisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers, placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems.” (Emphasis added.)

Conclusion

 These articles were the first that this blogger had heard of a projected decline in world population which if and when it happened would have a major impact on many countries and national and international economics and politics. Comments by others on this topic are encouraged.

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[1] See, e.g., the following dwkcommentries.com posts: Naturalized U.S. Citizens: Important Contributors to U.S. Culture and Economy,(June 7, 2015); Iowa State Government Encouraging Refugee and Migrant Resettlement(Feb. 3, 2023); Other States Join Iowa in Encouraging Immigration to Combat Aging, Declining Population (Feb. 22, 2023); Wall Street Journal Editorial: U.S. Needs More Immigrants (July 25, 2023); S. Has Long-Term Labor Crisis (Sept. 26, 2023); Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S. (Nov. 4, 2023);U.S. States That Could Have the Greatest Benefit from Immigrant Labor (Feb. 28, 2024); Another Documentation of the U.S. Need for Immigrants (April 12, 2024); Negative Impact of Donald Trump’s Proposed Immigration Restrictions (May 15, 2024).

[2] Spears, The World’s Population May Peak in Your Lifetime. What Happens Next?, New York Times (Sept. 18, 2023), Ip & Adamy, Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed, W.S.J. (May 13, 2024).

 

 

Russia Is Responsible for Havana Syndrome Attacks on U.S. Personnel

“The former head of the Pentagon’s investigation into the mysterious health incidents known as Havana Syndrome told the CBS investigation show 60 Minutes he believes Russia was behind them and was attacking U.S. officials abroad and at home.”[1]

This television show, in partnership with The Insider (a Russian exile media outlet) and a German magazine (Der Spiegel), reported on new evidence connecting a possible domestic incident of Havana Syndrome to Russia and identified a Russian military intelligence unit, identified as 29155, as the possible culprit of some of the suspected attacks.

60 Minutes also reported that at last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania a senior Pentagon official suffered an “anomalous health incident” (the U.S. term for Havana Syndrome) that required medical care.

Greg Edgreen, who ran the investigation into Havana Syndrome for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency from 2021-23, said that as a result of the incidents, U.S. officers abroad have been “neutralized.” When asked by the show’s host if he thought the United States is being attacked, he answered, “My personal opinion, yes, by Russia” because there are “no barriers on what Moscow will do.”

“Sources told the [Miami] Herald that many of the officers injured were involved in work related to Russia or were stationed in places where Russian spies could work with ease, like Cuba, China, Vietnam and most of Europe. Some incidents in Hanoi, Bogota, London and India happened ahead of or during the visits by senior U.S. officials.

This blog previously has published posts about the Havana Syndrome.[2]

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[1] Torres, Russia is behind Havana Syndrome, attacks on U.S., former lead Pentagon investigator says, Miami Herald (April 1, 2024); Russia would be behind the ‘Havana Syndrome’, according to an investigation, Diario de Cuba (April 1, 2024), 

[2] Search for posts about HAVANA SYNDROME, dwkcommentaries.com.

Two U.S. Congress Officials Object to O’Grady’s Defense of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism   

U.S. Representative Jim McGovern (Dem., Mass.) and U.S. Senator Peter Welch (Dem., VT) jointly voice their objection to Mary Anastasi O’Grady’s defense of the  U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism because, they argue, she presented no evidence for that action.[1]

Yes, McGovern and Welch say, “Cuban officials meet with counterparts in Russia and China, but so do American officials. Alliances with Russia and China, also cited as evidence of support for terrorism, would put half the world on the list. When it comes to spying, Cuba and other countries have had spies in the U.S.”

“Ms. O’Grady’s argument about Cuba’s support for Venezuela’s oppressive dictator might sound convincing, but Venezuela itself isn’t on the [terrorism] list. Cuba harbors some aging American fugitives, but none of them have been accused of international terrorism.”

“To be sure, there are [other] countries that belong on the list. [Two of them are North Korea and Syria.] North Korea threatens to launch nuclear weapons at us. Syria used chemical weapons on its own people and finances regional terrorists. Iran funds the rockets that rain down on Israel.”

“Cuba’s government is repressive; its economy is in shambles. If those were criteria for being on the list, it would be a mile long. It’s fine to criticize Cuba, but let’s be honest about who the real terrorists are. A policy of constructive engagement with Cuba might lead to more democracy. Wrongly labeling it as a sponsor of international terrorism only furthers a broken status quo.”

Conclusion

This blog has repeatedly and consistently argued that the U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism is unjustified. [2]

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[1] Compare McGovern & Welch, Cuba Is No Sponsor of International Terrorism, W.S.J. (Jan. 31, 2024), wit O’Grady, Why Cuba Belongs on the Terrorism List. W.S.J. (Jan. 21, 2024),

[2] E.g., Cuba Still on List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 1, 2023); U.S. Senators and Representatives Demand Ending of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 12, 2024);COMMENT: Another Congressman Calls for Ending Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 13, 2024).

 

 

 

Cuba’s Current Economic and Political Crises

Introduction[1]

At least by early December 2023, it was evident that Cuba was experiencing a horrible economic crisis. One commentator put it this way: “Cuba is going through the worst crisis it has experienced in decades, with widespread shortages of food and medicines, rolling blackouts and a sky-high 400% annual inflation rate. The calls on the communist leadership to open up the economy to the market are getting loud, even from close political allies.”

t also was a Cuban political crisis on how to respond to this economic crisis.  As John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council based in New York City, said in early December, Cuban “bureaucrats have become more reluctant to take risks since there is uncertainty about who is really in charge.” They are “either frightened or untrusting, and certainly not risk-takers.”

The most vivid criticism of this situation came from Roberto Alvarez-Quinones, a Cuban journalist, economist and historian who after working in Cuba for Granma and Cuban television stations has been doing that work in Los Angeles, California. He said, “Never in the history of the entire West has there been such an overwhelming economic and social crisis that it has affected practically 99% of the total population of a country, without having been caused by a natural catastrophe or a war, but by the Government of the nation.”

Cuban Government’s Response[2]

 At a December 20-22, 2023, meeting of Cuba’s National Assembly, the Minister of the economy and planning, Alejandro Gil Fernandez, reported that for 2023 Cuba’s GDP fell almost 2%; exports were $770 million below predictions; food production was less than that for 2022;  tourism, although more than the prior year, had a yield only 69% of the 2019 figures; overall production was down; there were shortages of supplies and fuels; and health care and education sectors where harmed by loss of workers to emigration.

Fernandez attributed Cuba’s inflation to international price hikes, the government’s release of money to finance its budget deficit, fewer goods being produced, the agricultural sector being burdened by labor shortages, high costs and low yields and Cuba being forced to import over 70% of the food that [was] being consumed.

Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz said the government’s lack of control over production and distribution “adversely affects production by state entities and lets currency exchanges on the illegal market determine the pricing of products from the non-state sector.”

President Diaz-Canel, of course, criticized the U.S. embargo (blockade), but admitted that the Cuban government had made some errors in the “design and implementation of currency unification,” “approving new economic actors without performance norms having been established” and “the complexity of making decisions in a context of extreme tension [and of] commitment to preserving social conquests.”

All of these “difficult realities” were summarized by W.T. Whitney, Jr. (an U.S. political journalist focusing on Latin America) as “the adverse effects of diminished tourism, inflation, and emigration; social inequalities based on varying access to resources; production stymied by shortages of resources; inadequate food production; lack of buying-power for most Cubans, and for importing necessary goods; and the near impossibility of securing foreign investment.”

To meet these problems, Whitney said, Cuba was preparing these responses: “further decentralization of political and economic administration; cutbacks on the expenditure of central government funds; reduced subsidies for the purchase of water, fuel, transport, and electricity by business entities; adjustment of import tariffs to favor the availability of resources for production; capturing more tourist dollars; protecting state-operated production entities; fixing prices; and producing more food.”

Moreover, Whitney said, the U.S. needs to cancel its embargo (blockade) of Cuba and remove Cuba from the U.S. list of countries that are sponsors of international terrorism.

Criticism of Cuban Government Responses[3]

Javier Perex Capdevila, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Professor at the University of Guantanamo, said the Government measures are based on cutting subsidies, but “there are no measures to get out of economic stagnation and . . . to reduce inflation, accompanied by a fiscal deficit that entails generating more liquid money which does not stimulate the economy, but rather inflation. The measures that have been announced in a confusing and ambiguous manner are supposed to achieve macroeconomic stabilization, but that is not a real solution . . and there is no guarantee that they will work.”

In addition. Capdevila noted that increases in long-distance transportation rates will adversely affect many people who have to use such transportation to reach competent medical personnel. He said, “You cannot save a country if you do not save the people.”

Pedro Monreal, a Cuban economist, criticized the purported justification for increasing black market prices for currencies by saying the government had not designed that market. Monreal said this was “a fig leaf to cover up the poor design of the ‘organization that made this informal market necessary.’”   The Cuban State did something worse in 2020 when “it designed a defective official exchange market with an overvalued [peso].” Monreal also “predicted more inflation” this year with a government deficit of 18.5% of gross domestic product.

Cuban economist Emilio Morales commented on the continued emigration of Cubans in 2023 while there was a 3.3% decrease in remittances to those on the island due to the need for those now in other countries to pay for their outbound transportation and expenses of living in other countries on their “march for family freedom.” Morales concluded that this result shows “the systemic crisis demands radical reforms and the entrenchment of the mafia regime in its totalitarian model blocks any possibility of survival. History teaches that bayonets cannot sustain a regime for long, indefinitely without fundamental reforms.”

The most recent news about Cuba’s laws affecting private enterprises was the January 16th announcement of new income tax regulations. Now “private sector employees will have to pay a 20% income tax on earnings above 30,000 Cuban pesos, about $109 per month. That’s a 15% tax rate increase from the previous scale set up in 2021, which imposed a 5% income tax for earnings over 9,510 Cuban pesos. Business owners must automatically deduct the tax payments monthly, the decree says.”

This recent announcement is in addition to the tax burden on Cuban private businesses: 35% tax on profits, a 10% tax on sales or services provided, a 5% payroll tax, a one percent revenue tax to support local governments and contributions to social security equal to 14% of workers’ salaries. Owners of the [private businesses] also have to pay up to 20% taxes on dividends.

Such private businesses “cannot hire more than 100 employees, they cannot be involved in economic activities handled by the state, such as telecommunications, and must import products and supplies through state companies working as intermediaries. According to the new regulations published this week, they can also be hit with price controls at any time ‘when circumstances advise it to achieve more favorable prices for the population.’”

At about the same time as this announcement of new taxes on private enterprises, the Cuban government announced a new “’ethics code’ for government officials and members of the Communist Party and similar organizations that mandate them to ‘be faithful to socialism,’ fight against the ‘genocidal’ U.S. embargo and ‘be loyal to the Cuban Communist Party, the Revolution… and to the Revolution´s Commander in Chief, Fidel Castro.”

Conclusion[4]

This blog consistently has advocated for U.S. repeal of the embargo (blockade) of Cuba and the U.S. designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. However, all of the blame for Cuba’s current crises cannot be attributed to these U.S. measures. Indeed, the U.S. now is the sixth largest exporter to Cuba.

Moreover, now the U.S. is preoccupied with the Israel-Hamas and the Russia-Ukraine wars, problems with Iran, North Korea, China, Yemen and the Red Sea and the problems created by large number of immigrants at our southwestern border. As a result, the U.S. does not have the time and resources to devote to Cuba’s problems and U.S. policies regarding same.

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[1] Analysis of Cuba’s Current Economic Crisis, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 5, 2023); Almost All Cubans Suffer Worst Economic Crisis in the History of the Western Hemisphere, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 11, 2023);

[2] Whitney, A revolution in trouble: Cuba’s government, People’s World (Jan 8, 2024).

[3] ‘You can’t save a country if you don’t save the people.’ a Cuban economics doctor explodes in response to the package, Diario de Cuba (Jan. 13, 2024); Another rise in the price of the dollar and the euro on the Cuban black market, Diario de Cuba (Jan. 15, 2024); Emigration grows, but remittances to Cuba sink, Diario de Cuba (Jan. 16, 2024);Through resolutions, the Castro regime intends to stop the astronomical fiscal deficit that it approved, Diario de Cuba (Jan. 17, 2024); Reyes, The economic package opens a political crisis in the Government of Cuba, Diario de Cuba (Jan. 17, 2024); Torres, As the economy craters, the Cuban government hits private-sector workers with tax hike, Miami Herald (Jan. 18, 2024).

[4] E.g., posts listed in sections “Cuba: State Sponsor of Terrorism?” and “U.S. Embargo of Cuba” in List of Posts to dwkcommentaries—Topical: CUBA [as of 5/4/20]; Cuba Still on U.S. List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 2, 2023);U.S. Senators and Representatives Demand Ending of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Jan. 12, 2024); COMMENT: Another Congressman Calls for Ending Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Jan.13, 2024); U.S. Increasing Exports to Cuba, dwkcommentaries.com (Jan. 12, 2024).

U.S. Accuses Cuba of Attempted Interference in U.S. Elections in 2022

On December 18, 2023, the U.S. intelligence community released a redacted report that claimed the Cuban government conducted influence operations in the United States “aimed at denigrating specific U.S. candidates in Florida” during the 2022 midterm elections and that “Cuban officials worked to build relationships with members of the American media who held critical views of Havana’s critics in Congress, and that a network of social media accounts ‘almost certainly covertly tied’ to Cuba ‘amplified derogatory content’ on U.S. politicians viewed as hostile to the Cuban state.” In addition, the report said. “The Cuban government sought to influence perceptions of politicians belonging to both major U.S. political parties” and “Public Cuban government statements indicate that Havana views Cuban-Americans in Miami as having an outsized influence on U.S. policy in Cuba.”[1]

However, this declassified report “does not name any specific individuals who were targeted, and much of the report’s section on Cuba’s activities are redacted. The assessment also does not say how effective Havana’s influence campaign was on Florida’s elections” although it did say that Cuba’s efforts were “smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted” than the other three countries that were mentioned (Russia, China and Iran).

After the release of this report, an unnamed White House official referred a reporter to the intelligence community for comment on the report and to the State Department and Treasury Department on whether the U.S. plans any retaliatory response to Cuba’s election meddling.[2]

This was an insufficient response according to several Florida politicians.

Senator Marco Rubio said, “It should not be a surprise to anyone that the Cuban regime attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections, though such ‘participation’ in our democratic process is particularly ironic given the regime’s disdain for any semblance of democracy at home. The Biden administration must immediately condemn these actions, make clear they will not be tolerated, and expel Cuban diplomats from U.S. soil. Continued failure to treat Cuba like the tyrannical spying regime that it is only emboldens it.”

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, R-Miami, said, “this blatant interference in American elections must not be permitted and must be met by an immediate response from the United States government. The Cuban regime seeks to topple their enemies and plant their allies and agents in positions of power in the United States. South Florida politicians who oppose the regime are being attacked through the communist propaganda their mouthpieces spread.”

U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez said during a press conference that he believes he, Salazar and Miami’s other Republican congressman, Mario Diaz-Balart, were targeted, though he said he had not been told that directly. All three are Cuban Americans. “They redacted a whole bunch but you can infer from what you can see who exactly it was that they were talking about.”

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[1] U.S. National Intelligence Council, Foreign Threats to the 2022 US Elections, Declassified (12/23/23); Wilner, U.S. intelligence finds Cuba tried to influence Florida races during 2022 elections, Miami Herald (Dec. 19, 2023).

[2] Wilner, White House says it will not tolerate Cuban efforts to influence U.S. elections, Miami Herald (Dec.20, 2023).

 

Analysis of Cuba’s Current Economic Crisis 

“Cuba is going through the worst crisis it has experienced in decades, with widespread shortages of food and medicines, rolling blackouts and a sky-high 400% annual inflation rate. The calls on the communist leadership to open up the economy to the market are getting loud, even from close political allies.”[1]

“But deep divisions at the top of the regime regarding how much freedom to give the new private sector, compounded by a leadership vacuum, are creating paralysis and keeping the country from adopting broader market reforms.”

“Among the people most opposed to any change that smacks of capitalism are hardliners who have the most invested in the regime that has ruled Cuba since 1959: Men in their 90s, with deep roots in the Revolution and historic ties to Castro, who still serve in high-profile positions and who enjoy a standard of living vastly superior to the average Cuban. They resist market reforms, seeing them as a betrayal of Marxist ideology and a challenge to continuing authoritarian rule.”

“Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat who lives in Cuba [and who participated in] an event organized by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University in October, said, “The country’s top leadership is made up of people who have very dogmatic views of reality and are very attached to certain things from the past. A closed ideological vision prevails in many sectors, in people from the old guard like Ramiro Valdés or in new people like Díaz-Canel.” He also criticized the island’s “immense Cuban bureaucracy that enjoys much discretionary power in implementing changes.”

This point was echoed by John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a New York group monitoring business with Cuba, who has three decades of experience dealing with Cuban government officials. He said, “bureaucrats have become more reluctant to take risks since there is uncertainty about who is really in charge.” They are “either frightened or untrusting, and certainly not risk-takers.”

Observers say that there are at least the following centers of power in Cuba:

  • “The administrative branch of the government, including Díaz-Canel, Prime Minister Marrero, the Council of Ministers, the individual ministries and big state-owned companies.
  • The Communist Party, “the superior leading political force of society and the State,” according to the country’s 2019 Constitution.
  • GAESA, a vast business conglomerate run by the military, which runs most of the island’s economy, especially the tourism industry.
  • The military itself, which manages other industries outside GAESA and has developed close relations with the Russian and Chinese military, and whose generals and other top current and former officials hold leadership positions across the government.
  • The Interior Ministry, which oversees the police, the state security apparatus, and intelligence and counterintelligence agencies. The intelligence services have the most to fear from a transition to a market economy that could bring demands for regime change.”

The military is believed by many to have the upper hand. “They exert notable influence not just by commanding the armed forces and security agencies but also through GAESA, whose finances are believed to be untouchable, even by the Ministry of the Economy. The generals have seats in all the major decision-making bodies, including the Communist Party’s Politburo, the Central Committee and the Council of Ministers. The country’s prime minister, Marrero, is a former army colonel who later served as tourism minister. Ultimately, the military may see the private sector as an unwelcome competitor.”

“Government officials, generals and Communist Party leaders have heavily courted traditional allies like Russia, China and Belarus, hoping for a lifeline to keep the economy afloat without giving more space to capitalism. That strategy worked well for Fidel Castro, who struck a deal with Soviet leaders in the early days of the Revolution that resulted in billions of dollars in subsidies during the Cold War.”

“’There seems to be a sort of paralysis and a lack of clear hierarchy in the decision-making process that has grown worse in the last couple of years,’ said a source who has interacted with the island’s authorities over the years to help American companies do business with Cuba and who asked to remain anonymous to speak about meetings with Cuban officials. ‘What was once a fairly clear power hierarchy is now sort of a patchwork, and it’s a guessing game as to why a proposal is getting denied and who is making this decision. And that’s a fundamental change.’”

Some people involved in the private sector “believe Díaz-Canel understands the need to expand the private sector. But he lacks the power to push reforms, despite his position at the top of the Communist Party.”

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[1] Torres, As Cuba’s economy craters and private businesses grow, here’s what’s holding up change, Miami Herald (Dec. 5, 2023).

Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S.  

For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, arrests at the U.S. Southwest border of migrants from China, India, Mauritania, Senegal, Russia and other distant countries tripled to 214,000. This is a special challenge for the U.S. because deporting them is “time-consuming, expensive and sometimes not possible.” As a result, the U.S. is actively working on obtaining agreements for removal of such immigrants with such countries.[1]

In Mexico an international smuggling ring works with a network of other smugglers handling migrants from Bangladesh, Yemen, Pakistan, Eritrea, India, Uzbekistan, Egypt and India.

For the second year in a row total arrests at the U.S. southern border surpassed two million, almost 90% of whom are from Latin America and the Caribbean.

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[1] Perez, Migrants Are Flocking to the U.S. From All Over the Globe, W.S.J. (Nov. 4, 2023).