“In a gambit to try to precipitate regime change in Cuba, the Trump administration is planning to ramp up sanctions on the island’s military as part of a maximum-pressure campaign that may also further restrict travel, remittances and exports. Trump administration officials and Cuban-American members of Congress believe the communist regime in Havana is at its weakest moment in decades and have been pushing for an all-out effort to topple it. The island’s economy has been in a downward spiral in recent years, and the country’s ruler, Raúl Castro, is 94.”[1]
“In a Miami event last week, Trump’s special envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, said the administration perceives ‘a historic opportunity in Cuba for political opening and political transition.’ Officials have been discussing how to update the existing decades-old embargo against Cuba and close ‘loopholes’ to avoid ‘the ups and downs, pressures and non pressures’ that have hindered its success. He also said he administration has already made strides in that direction and created ‘new mechanisms to be more efficient, to be more surgical’ to target ‘ the different economic sectors in the regime, particularly the military.’”
“U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez, a Cuban American Republican from Miami who represents a district stretching to the Florida Keys, asked the administration last week to halt all travel and remittances to the island, which would prohibit Cuban Americans from visiting relatives on the island or sending money to help them.”
“Giménez also called for a halt to all travel to the U.S. originating from the island and asked for financial sanctions, including tariffs, on countries that do not directly pay Cuba’s doctors in the medical missions abroad that have become a significant source of hard currency for the island’s government.”
“The [Miami] Herald has also learned of other measures being floated by the Trump administration, including revoking export licenses held by U.S. companies supplying the island’s private sector and shutting down U.S.-based online supermarkets that allow Cuban Americans to pay for food, and even medicines, that are then delivered directly to Cubans on the island. The measures are still under discussion, and it is unclear how far officials would ultimately push to shut down revenue going into the island. But if enacted, some of the ideas proposed also risk destroying a nascent private sector and worsening the country’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.”
“Several years into a recession, Cuba faces chronic shortages of food, medicines and essential goods, and a crippled infrastructure that is hitting seniors living off state pensions the worst. The lack of food is particularly acute outside Havana, especially in rural areas in eastern Cuba. That’s why remittances and the online supermarkets have been a lifeline for many Cubans — the government sells groceries and other necessities in dollar stores but pays monthly salaries in pesos worth around $15, and much less to those on pensions. Some of these online platforms also deliver much-needed medications not available in state-run pharmacies.”
“The broad restrictions the administration is contemplating would also hamper discreet efforts by religious organizations and other non-profits to send humanitarian aid to the island. As the situation has deteriorated, donations to Cuba have jumped from $36.5 million in 2023 to $67 million last year, according to figures compiled by the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.”
“’Shutting down U.S. flights and informal remittance channels would harm innocent Cuban families far more than communist party elites with global ties who can travel anywhere else,’ said Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a Cuban American group based in Washington. ‘Prohibiting Cuban Americans from supporting their loved ones in Cuba won’t topple the Cuban regime nor usher in democracy. It will only stoke migration to third countries and hasten the island’s descent into a failed state.’”
“But in a Fox News interview, Giménez called the money sent from Miami to Cuban relatives ‘a cash cow’ that helps the Havana regime finance its repressive apparatus. Without that revenue to spend on repression, he said, he hopes Cubans could rise and topple the government.”
“In the Miami event, Claver-Carone, who played a central role in shaping Cuba policy during the first Trump administration, showed little enthusiasm for Giménez’s proposal, which he called an example of the ‘old’ sanctions tools. The first Trump administration did not go as far as Giménez is advocating now, in part to avoid past controversies that divided South Florida’s Cuban American community.”
“Cuban Americans have been debating on social media the wisdom or effectiveness of ending remittances at a critical time for Cuba’s population. “I don’t think that will bring down that dictatorship,” an X user whose profile says ‘Maga! Trump 2025’ replied to a Giménez post warning Cuban Americans not to travel or send remittances to Cuba. ‘They always benefit, and the Cuban people continue to die of hunger, and our families need that little bit of money we can send them just to eat. Bring down the dictatorship, but don’t starve our families to death.’”
“U.S. officials are also looking at ways to stem increasing U.S. trade with Cuba, which the island’s emergent private sector has driven in recent years. In the month of February, exports to Cuba were $47.6 million, a 75% jump from February last year, according to figures compiled by the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.”
“In 2024, U.S. companies exported $586 million to Cuba. Most of that trade, $433 million, is food and agricultural commodities, which is allowed under the embargo thanks to a 2000 law – the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act. Unlike in the past, when the Cuban government was the leading importer, private enterprises on the island and U.S. exporters selling to private businesses are responsible for most of the recent trade growth. U.S. food products are sold in private stores and privately owned restaurants on the island, or delivered directly to people’s homes.”
“U.S. companies have also exported cars, solar panels, clothing, household items, and many other types of goods, using special government authorizations known as licenses or invoking an exception in the embargo rules that allows activities ‘in support of the Cuban people.’ The merchandise is imported mainly by private business owners residing on the island or bought by Cuban Americans for their relatives living there.”
“’Today, most of the food exported from the United States to Cuba is shipped to private businesses on the ground because the government is broke and in arrears with all of its former suppliers,’ Herrero said. ‘Limiting U.S. food exports to Cuba would not only harm those independent entrepreneurs, but also countless Cuban families already suffering from severe food scarcity.’”
“Prohibiting food exports from the U.S. would be difficult because it would require a change in the law, but revoking licenses might be easier for the administration, Kavulich said.”
“Critics of companies that export to Cuba question whether they ultimately benefit or have links to the Cuban government.”
“Carlos Gimenez, a Republican [Cuban-born] Congressman, asserts that ‘we are at war against Castroism. Under a dictatorship, one is either complicit in or a victim of the constant physical, psychological, and even domestic violence inflicted on society to keep it immobilized, with no right to reply. Every dictatorship is a war between a government and a people.’”
“’We’ve been waiting for 65 years for Castroism’s grip to loosen, waiting for totalitarianism to liquefy, freeing up some space for civil society. Well, that time is now, as the system’s inherent contradictions have led it to moral, ideological, leadership, and economic bankruptcy… All that’s left is repression and our inability to organize.’”
“’The dictatorship has never been weaker than it is today, but it’s weak because of its own inability, not because we weakened it . And if we give it time, it will achieve a balance, a new stability in that weakness… We must act quickly and decisively.’”
“’Castroism thrives on its prey, it feeds on its victims like a parasite, like a cancer, and to defeat it, we must cut off its source of energy. We must cut off the two legs that support the regime. On the one hand, this human trafficking, about which we can do little but denounce and trust Marco Rubio. But on the other hand, the resources sent by emigrants, we can act on these.’”
“’ We are at war against this parasite, and wars aren’t pretty; wars require enormous sacrifices. Wars hurt, they damage, they make everything worse before they can improve it… but some wars are necessary.’”
“’Anyone who wants a Cuba without Castroism must be prepared to pay the price, must be prepared to sacrifice themselves, and worse, much worse, must be prepared to sacrifice their loved ones, bringing the country to the point where families on this island suffer unspeakably from shortages of all kinds. Because leaving the country without resources is the only way to leave Castroism without resources; there is no other way, at least not through nonviolent civil means.’”
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[1] Torres, Things are about to get a lot worse in Cuba: Trump’s crackdown plans explained, Miami Herald (April 10, 2025); Cruz, Congressman Carlos Gimenez calls for slaughter: Is it time for the final charge in Cuba?, Diario de Cuba (April 10, 2025).