On December 21, 2017, Cuba’s National Assembly determined that Raúl Castro’s term as President would be extended from February 24 to April 19. The stated reason for the extension was the delay in the start of the electoral cycle caused by Hurricane Irma.[1]
Some, however, speculate that the real reason for the extension is trying to cope with Cuba’s many economic and political problems—slower economic growth (if not decline), declining support from struggling Venezuela and increased U.S. hostility. Perhaps a clearer indication of what is happening will be provided by the March meeting of the Central Committee of Cuba’s Communist Party to discuss the results of the economic guidelines, or reforms, introduced under Castro and talk about a strategy for the coming years.[2]
Indeed, during this session of the National Assembly President Castro said, “Next year will also be complicated for the external finances of the nation, however, we will continue credibility of our economy and reiterate to the creditors the fulfillment of the agreed commitments, and we thank support and understanding for the transitory difficulties that we face.” However, Castro did say, “when the National Assembly is constituted, my second and last term [as] . . . the head of the State and the Government [will end] and Cuba will have a new president.”
Simultaneously the Cuban Government announced new regulations on the emerging private and cooperative sectors of the nation’s economy to more closely regulate the income distribution by cooperatives so that no one may earn more than three times of others in the cooperative. This resulted from investigations revealing that in some non-agricultural cooperatives the president earned fourteen times more than the workers, that this is not a cooperative, but rather a private company and cannot be allowed.
In addition, a cooperative may operate in only one province where it has a legal domicile, and business licenses will be limited to one per person.
Cuba’s Vice President Marino Murillo, who is also the government’s economy czar, said there will be no new approvals for the time being for non-agricultural cooperatives, while their maximum and minimum earnings will be limited to avoid the existence of de-facto private businesses.
According to Michael Bustamante, an assistant professor of Latin American history at Florida International University, these new regulations “suggest a continued slowing down, if not an undoing, of the economic reforms implemented between 2010 and 2016.”
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[1] Deputies approve extension of the mandate of the provincial assemblies and the National Assembly, Granma (Dec. 21, 2017); Raúl Castro: “Here we are and we will be; free, sovereign and independent, CubaDebate (Dec. 21, 2017); Morales, Evaluates the march of the implementation of the Guidelines, Granma (Dec. 21, 2017); Murillo, The problems we have faced in the Update are more complex and deeper than we had thought, Granma (Dec. 22, 2017); Reuters, Cuba Delays Historic Handover from Castro to New President, N.Y. times (Dec. 21, 2017); Assoc. Press, Castro Confirms He Will Stay Cuba’s President to April, N.Y. Times (Dec. 21, 2017); Londońo, Cuba Delays End of Raúl Castro’s Presidency by Two Months, N.Y. Times (Dec. 21, 2017); Whitefield & Torres, Cuban Leader Raúl Castro will stay in power past February, Miami Herald (Dec. 21, 2107).
[2] As reported in a December 1 comment to a post about Cuba’s elections, Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence analyst who now lives in Miami, said, “The fatherland is in danger; it is facing very difficult economic circumstances plus the threat of aggression from a historical enemy. Facing difficult circumstances, revolutionary leaders don’t back down. These are not times to enjoy life in Varadero and spend time with the grandchildren.”
