Tag: low fertility rate

More Thoughts on U.S. Low Fertility Rate 

A previous post discussed the issues arising out of the recent record low fertility rate in the U.S.[1] A more recent article added additional thoughts on this development.[2]

First, recent Gallup polling data shows that 45% of respondents said three or more kids was ideal, the highest level since 1971. And American teenage and adult women for decades have desired more kids much higher than the actual fertility rates. That suggests the U.S. should help women achieve the family size they want.

Second, a population that fails to replace itself can face serious challenges. It can lead to stagnant or declining living standards.  It also means fewer workers are available to care for the growing elderly population and pay for its retirement benefits. Already the typical American senior citizen receives more Social Security and Medicare payments than they paid into the system. This problem will worsen as the ratio of retirees to working-age Americans grows.

In fact, this last problem is worse than government numbers suggest because they assume a higher future fertility rate than we have been experiencing.

As a result, the U.S. should adopt policies like mandatory paid maternity leave, lower tax burden for families with young kids, improved access to reproductive care and abortions in emergencies. Of course, increased immigration is another solution.

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[1] U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low, dwkcommentaries.com (April 25, 2024).

[2] Rampell, Americans are having too few kids. The GOP made the problem worse, Wash. Post (May 1, 2024).

 

Cuba’s Success and Problems with an Aging, Declining Population

One of the successes of the Cuban Revolution has been better health care for average Cubans and thus their increasing life spans. Simultaneously, however, the number of younger Cubans has been declining. The result, Cuba has a declining, aging population that is now the oldest in Latin America,

The average life expectancy for a Cuban man is 76.8 years and 81.3 years for a woman, according to 2018 data from the World Health Organization. To address the challenges of this changing demography, the Cuban government has made the following changes:

  • Several years ago, the Cuban government began to progressively raise its retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women. It also allowed people to collect their pensions and still work.
  • In December 2018, the government raised the minimum pension from 200 Cuban pesos to 249 Cuban pesos, which amounts to less than $10. Many pensioners complain they are barely getting by.
  • Cuba’s Ministry of Public Health provides funding for Círculos de Abuelos (Grandparents Circles), which provide adult daycare for the elderly with meals, games, conversation and socialization.

On the other hand, Cuba’s low fertility rate and birth rate are seen as markers of low confidence in Cuba’s future. The same is shown by high out-migration of younger Cubans looking for a better life and future prospects in other countries. Nor is Cuba attracting in-migration of younger people from other countries for the same reason.

In short, for this aging U.S. gringo, Cuba needs to adopt policies that give younger Cubans solid reasons to believe that their future on the island will be better. And that is not more of the same.

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Whitefield, ‘Circulos de Abuelos’ serve Cuba’s rapidly aging population—the oldest in the Americas, Miami Herald (Mar. 7, 2019); Cuban Realities Adversely Affecting Normalization with the U.S., dwkcommenaries.com (Nov. 12, 2015).