A previous post discussed the issues arising out of the recent record low fertility rate in the U.S.[1] A more recent article added additional thoughts on this development.[2]
First, recent Gallup polling data shows that 45% of respondents said three or more kids was ideal, the highest level since 1971. And American teenage and adult women for decades have desired more kids much higher than the actual fertility rates. That suggests the U.S. should help women achieve the family size they want.
Second, a population that fails to replace itself can face serious challenges. It can lead to stagnant or declining living standards. It also means fewer workers are available to care for the growing elderly population and pay for its retirement benefits. Already the typical American senior citizen receives more Social Security and Medicare payments than they paid into the system. This problem will worsen as the ratio of retirees to working-age Americans grows.
In fact, this last problem is worse than government numbers suggest because they assume a higher future fertility rate than we have been experiencing.
As a result, the U.S. should adopt policies like mandatory paid maternity leave, lower tax burden for families with young kids, improved access to reproductive care and abortions in emergencies. Of course, increased immigration is another solution.
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[1] U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low, dwkcommentaries.com (April 25, 2024).
[2] Rampell, Americans are having too few kids. The GOP made the problem worse, Wash. Post (May 1, 2024).
