Accelerating Inflation in Cuba 

Cuba’s official inflation reached 33.17% in March with fuel and food prices increasing the cost of living for the people. According to Cuban economist Pedro Monreal, “without an increase in food supply, it is difficult to assume that inflation in Cuba would be substantially reduced.” [1]

Another Cuban economist, Omar Everleny Pérez, on the basis of maximum prices from the state National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), estimated that the current cost of the minimum basic food basket for two people in Cuba is almost 20,000 pesos a month, which is much higher than the national minimum wage of 2,100 pesos.

Another major factor in Cuban inflation is the falling value of the Cuban peso in international markets. For example, on April 10, U.S. economist Steve Hanke, an academic at Johns Hopkins University, said that since January 23, the Cuban peso has depreciated 49% against the dollar.[2]

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[1] Inflation accelerates in Cuba: fuel and food dominate the rise in prices, Diario de Cuba (April 20, 2024);

[2] Euro and dollar, unstoppable, and the salary of Cubans increasingly meagre, Diario de Cuba (April 21, 2024)

 

Cuban Peso Declines in Value versus Euro and U.S. Dollar   

On February 23, 2024, the U.S. Dollar and the Euro increased in value (310 and 315 (CUP)) against the Cuban Peso. This results in shrinking the value of the Peso by the day.[1]

Some Cubans painfully joked, “To infinity and beyond, go up, go up to the clouds.” Others joke that when the Cuban Government adopts its  “great” economic package, the prices of these foreign currencies will accelerate upward.

According to a Cuban economist, Emilio Morales, the Government’s abolition of its adjustment plan is “a desperate action to avoid an imminent large-scale social outbreak, which would surely be joined by dissatisfied partisan militants and a large number of dissatisfied military personnel.”

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[1] ‘To infinity and beyond’: new records for the dollar and euro in the Cuban informal market, Diario de Cuba (Feb. 23, 2024).