After the UN . . . report ”World Population Prospects” recognized the demographic debacle that is sinking the number of inhabitants in Cuba, the island’s government released its own figures to acknowledge that the “effective population” is currently less than ten million people.”[1]
“During the debate that followed the presentation of the Migration Bill at the plenary session of the National Assembly of People’s Power (ANPP), . . . Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, first deputy head of the state-run National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), indicated that as of December 31, 2023, the effective Cuban population was 10,055,968 people.”
“’This effective population is 10.1% lower than the one that existed on December 31, 2020, and similar to the one Cuba registered at some point in 1985,’ he commented.”
However, he continued, “the contraction in the number of births and the continuation of the historic exodus that the country is experiencing has meant that during the first half of 2024 that figure will continue to decline, which is a bad omen for the Government, which has been trying to stop the drop in birth rates for more than a decade.”
“Given the above, Alfonso Fraga indicated, ‘currently the population of Cuba is less than ten million inhabitants and must continue to decrease. This significant adjustment in the demographic structure has repercussions on plans, programs, and projects in the demographic, economic, social, and environmental spheres, which must be reviewed and adjusted where appropriate.’”
“Fraga [also] acknowledged that in the last three years, specifically the period following the social outbreak of 11J, ‘the mobility of the Cuban population abroad has intensified, with prolonged stays abroad. This is not reflected in the calculation of the resident population, according to the current methodology, since a significant part of that population is not defined as migrants,’ since in Cuba a resident is still considered to be someone who has traveled and has not yet lived abroad for two years.”
“’For this reason, statistical criteria and algorithms were presented, analyzed and approved that modify the current methodological considerations associated with the migration variable, which is used in the calculation of the annual population, introducing the concept of population with effective residence,’ referring to the criteria that the authorities will apply in the new immigration law.”
Fraga “specified that the effective population is considered to be all those who, in a calendar year, were born in Cuba or in another country, but reside permanently on the Island, have accumulated 180 days or more of residence during the last 365 days and have not died.”
“The status of immigrant or emigrant will be considered in the regulation now approved by the ANPP based on the time of physical stay in the country over the course of one year. ‘The immigrant, once he enters the country, must accumulate 180 days or more of stay in it, while the emigrant is one who in the year did not accumulate 180 days or more of stay in the national territory.’”
The government agency ”determined that 1,249,733 people remained outside the country as of December 31, 2023, a figure that is actually much higher. According to Alfonso Fraga, at least 75% of that figure must be discounted from the population of the Island, for not having effective residence in the country in the period 2021-2023.”
“Apart from migration, the official acknowledged that there has been a natural decline in recent times, since more people have died than were born.”
“’There are 124 municipalities with this characteristic,’ he said, adding that in provinces such as Havana and Villa Clara this has been happening for the last 15 years.”
“Fraga also acknowledged something that threatens to make the situation worse: almost 80% of the ages of emigrants between 2021 and 2023 range between 15 and 59 years.”
“In 2021, according to official figures, 11,113,215 people lived in Cuba, down from 11,181,595 the previous year. The exodus, the worsening decline in births, the more than 168,000 [deaths] caused by Covid-19 and other diseases in 2021 alone, caused the decline to continue to deepen. In addition, in 2023 around 90,300 births were registered on the Island, the lowest figure in the last six decades.”
“In fact, the Government has postponed the next Population and Housing Census until at least 2025, citing lack of resources.”
However, although the ONEI figures are the first official figures since 2021 on the number of inhabitants of Cuba, a recent independent demographic study carried out by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos indicated that the current population of the Island would actually be 8.62 million people, for a drop of 18% between 2022 and 2023.”
“Albizu-Campos said that the figures offered by ONEI are ‘fictitious.’ The entity stated that 11.11 million people lived in Cuba on December 31, 2021. The independent Cuban demographer corrected this data , taking as a reference the electoral rolls of 2013 and 2023, and estimated that, on that date, 10.48 million people lived on the Island.”
“The UN also projects a decline in Cuba’s population by 2100, which would put it below six million inhabitants. Of that number, almost 2.5 million would be over 60 years old, life expectancy would be over 85 years and the mortality rate would be 17 per 1,000 inhabitants, with 95,000 deaths per year, more than double the number of births.”
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[1] There are less than ten million Cubans on the island, according to the government, and the number is declining, Diario de Cuba (July 20, 2024).
