Russia – dwkcommentaries

Will the World’s Population Cease To Expand?

This blog has published many posts about the U.S. currently experiencing a declining and aging population and seeing one solution in encouraging immigration from other countries that have increasing and younger populations.[1]

This perspective is complicated by some population experts seeing a future peak in world population and a subsequent shrinkage in same without reaching a plateau and stable population.[2]

Dean Spears’ Opinion

Dean Spears (an economist at the Population Research Center at the University of Texas, Austin) asserts that various experts agree that world population soon will peak and then shrink. Here are those experts’ opinions on the timing of such a peak: U.N. demographers, 2080s; Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2070s; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, 2060s.

The common element in these projections is families having smaller family sizes. The main reason, Spears claims, is “people want smaller families than people did in the past. Humanity is building a better, freer world with more opportunities for everyone, especially for women. That progress deserves everyone’s continued efforts. That progress also means that, for many of us, the desire to build a family can clash with other important goals, including having a career, pursuing projects and maintaining relationships.”

These competing interests could lead to “backsliding on reproductive freedom—by limiting abortion rights, for example. But Spears says, “low birthrates are no reason to reverse progress toward a more free, diverse and equal world.”

Spears concludes this analysis with the following statement: “Humanity needs a compassionate, factual and fair conversation about how to respond to depopulation and how to share the burdens of creating each future generation. The way to have that conversation is to start paying attention now.” (Emphasis added.)

Wall Street Journal’s Perspective

The Wall Street Journal begins its article, “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Many government leaders see this as a matter of national urgency. They worry about shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth and underfunded pensions; and the vitality of a society with ever-fewer children. Smaller populations come with diminished global clout, raising questions in the U.S., China and Russia about their long-term standings as superpowers.” (Emphasis added.)

“Some demographers see this as part of a ‘second demographic transition,’ a society wide reorientation toward individualism that puts less emphasis on marriage and parenthood, and makes fewer or no children more acceptable.”

According to Professor Melissa Kearney of the University of Maryland, “state-level differences in parental abortion notification laws, unemployment, Medicaid availability, housing costs, contraceptive usage, religiosity, child-care costs and student debt could explain almost none of the decline. We suspect that this shift reflects broad societal changes that are hard to measure or quantify. . . . If people have a preference for spending time building a career, on leisure, relationships outside the home, that’s more likely to come in conflict with childbearing. Meanwhile, time-use data show that mothers and fathers, especially those that are highly educated, spend more time with their children than in the past. The intensity of parenting is a constraint.”

“With no reversal in birthrates in sight, the attendant economic pressures are intensifying. Since the pandemic, labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries. That will only worsen in coming years as the past crisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers, placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems.” (Emphasis added.)

Conclusion

These articles were the first that this blogger had heard of a projected decline in world population which if and when it happened would have a major impact on many countries and national and international economics and politics. Comments by others on this topic are encouraged.

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[1] See, e.g., the following dwkcommentries.com posts: Naturalized U.S. Citizens: Important Contributors to U.S. Culture and Economy,(June 7, 2015); Iowa State Government Encouraging Refugee and Migrant Resettlement(Feb. 3, 2023); Other States Join Iowa in Encouraging Immigration to Combat Aging, Declining Population (Feb. 22, 2023); Wall Street Journal Editorial: U.S. Needs More Immigrants (July 25, 2023); S. Has Long-Term Labor Crisis (Sept. 26, 2023); Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S. (Nov. 4, 2023);U.S. States That Could Have the Greatest Benefit from Immigrant Labor (Feb. 28, 2024); Another Documentation of the U.S. Need for Immigrants (April 12, 2024); Negative Impact of Donald Trump’s Proposed Immigration Restrictions (May 15, 2024).

[2] Spears, The World’s Population May Peak in Your Lifetime. What Happens Next?, New York Times (Sept. 18, 2023), Ip & Adamy, Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed, W.S.J. (May 13, 2024).

Russia Is Responsible for Havana Syndrome Attacks on U.S. Personnel

“The former head of the Pentagon’s investigation into the mysterious health incidents known as Havana Syndrome told the CBS investigation show 60 Minutes he believes Russia was behind them and was attacking U.S. officials abroad and at home.”[1]

This television show, in partnership with The Insider (a Russian exile media outlet) and a German magazine (Der Spiegel), reported on new evidence connecting a possible domestic incident of Havana Syndrome to Russia and identified a Russian military intelligence unit, identified as 29155, as the possible culprit of some of the suspected attacks.

60 Minutes also reported that at last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania a senior Pentagon official suffered an “anomalous health incident” (the U.S. term for Havana Syndrome) that required medical care.

Greg Edgreen, who ran the investigation into Havana Syndrome for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency from 2021-23, said that as a result of the incidents, U.S. officers abroad have been “neutralized.” When asked by the show’s host if he thought the United States is being attacked, he answered, “My personal opinion, yes, by Russia” because there are “no barriers on what Moscow will do.”

“Sources told the [Miami] Herald that many of the officers injured were involved in work related to Russia or were stationed in places where Russian spies could work with ease, like Cuba, China, Vietnam and most of Europe. Some incidents in Hanoi, Bogota, London and India happened ahead of or during the visits by senior U.S. officials.

This blog previously has published posts about the Havana Syndrome.[2]

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[1] Torres, Russia is behind Havana Syndrome, attacks on U.S., former lead Pentagon investigator says, Miami Herald (April 1, 2024); Russia would be behind the ‘Havana Syndrome’, according to an investigation, Diario de Cuba (April 1, 2024),

[2] Search for posts about HAVANA SYNDROME, dwkcommentaries.com.

Cuba’s Worsening Economic and Political Crisis

Emilio Morales, a Cuban who has had wide-ranging marketing experience on the island, is now the President and CEO of Havana Consulting Group, a Miami-based consulting firm specializing in market intelligence and strategy for U.S. and and non-U.S. persons doing business in Cuba.[1]

Morales has provided a detailed analysis of Cuba’s worsening economic and political crisis.[2] The following is part of that analysis.

“The multi-systemic crisis that overwhelms Cubans and that has been caused by the ineptitude and mediocrity of those in power (shielded by lunatic ideological fanaticism and the ambition to control all the country’s wealth, leaves no room to make structural changes that are required to get out of the crisis) has generated a chaotic situation that seems to have no way out.”

‘The country is bankrupt, it has no lines of credit, its energy matrix is collapsed, the three main areas of income have fallen precipitously: tourism, remittances and exports of medical services. The agricultural system is practically paralyzed, the sugar industry is destroyed. The health system, the education system and the transportation system suffer the same fate. There is nothing left to destroy. The only thing that is increasing is poverty and citizen anger, which so far in the last two years more than 600,000 Cubans have resolved by leaving the country.”

“Faced with this reality, the ruling leadership has postponed any forum for debate that exists in the political structures authorized in the country to address the economic, political and social issues that affect the country and its citizens. Months ago, the party apparatus suspended the Second National Conference of the Party, invoking the need to ‘be consistent with the economic situation of the country.’ Some time later, the Council of State announced the suspension for the second consecutive quarter of the so-called Accountability Assemblies of the delegates to his voters, an activity through which the Castro regime has tried for decades to illustrate its alleged model of ‘popular democracy’.”

“In other words, Cubans are mired in poverty, and the regime has closed the forums where they can channel their complaints, even though these have never really worked and have always been pure circus. But the leadership no longer even dares to put on its circus.”

“In this sense, the call for unity made by Raúl Castro on January 2, meant a strong alarm signal. At such a crucial moment, when what the people need is a message of hope, the nonagenarian dictator used his speech to instill fear in the already decimated partisan troops and in the military who no longer believe in the obligatory loyalty and obedience for which They once swore an oath to which they have been subjected for decades. Raúl Castro knows that this is the last bastion that apparently keeps them in power. It is what he has left before leaving this world, in his last-minute fight to avoid the collapse of the legacy that the revolution has kept alive with the historical generation.”

“Without a doubt, the country is not only experiencing a great multisystem crisis, it is also experiencing a great leadership crisis. In the ranks of the PCC and in the Armed Forces themselves there is a great feeling of discontent, and a high level of fatigue that manifests itself in apathy, harsh criticism of the system and the actions of the country’s leaders. This explains Raúl’s defeatist speech on January 2, calling for unity that no longer exists, and remembering that he will get out of the way of anyone who opposes the changes they order.”

“It is obvious that Counterintelligence has deeply penetrated the unrest that exists right now in the military and partisan ranks themselves . Hence, the sudden operation to reverse the package. A rebellion like the one on July 11, 2021 with the accompaniment of dissatisfied soldiers and militants of the party in rebellion would be the end of the dictatorship, and that reality is taking a toll on Saturn in these crucial moments.”

“GAESA collapses and the Russian bailout evaporates.”[3]

“The manifest insecurity at the top of power is related, among other factors, to two key factors: the lack of financial resources and the absence of a patron to keep it afloat at this stage of such political vulnerability. In this sense, the financial collapse of GAESA and the evaporation of the Russian bailout have suddenly triggered an increase in the level of vulnerability that the Cuban regime presents today. Certainly the largest it has had in more than six decades of communist dictatorship.”

“GAESA’s financial collapse is a key factor. In this sense, it should be noted that the death of General Luis Alberto Rodriguez López Callejas, CEO of GAESA, has generated a great disaster in the megaholding of the Cuban oligarchs. The verticality in decision-making and the management of the country’s finances and investments at its own convenience has turned out to be an indecipherable riddle for the substitutes that Raúl Castro has placed in his replacement strategy. Apparently no one gives a clue about how GAESA is managed.”

“At first glance, internally there is disorder, abandonment, undersupplied stores, and management personnel setting up their own MSMEs . A kind of mafia stampede is taking place, trying to create new small fiefdoms. The loss of suppliers, the company’s large debts with them, and the Government’s immobility in making decisions have generated an internal piñata that does not seem to be controlled. The level of control that existed in the company when López Calleja was there has disappeared. This is a very strong sign of internal collapse, of breaking the chain of command.”

“What happened recently at FINCIMEX on the eve of the package, with the issue of computer systems that control banking connections and the issuance of magnetic cards, is a good example of the breakdown of order within GAESA. As a result, the Western Union company has had to suspend remittance shipments to the Island until further notice and the issuance of cards for the sale of gasoline in dollars has stopped.”

“Obviously, something big is happening internally at GAESA . The last-minute problems that arose with their computer systems paralyzed the operations of stores, gas stations and remittance shipments. This unusual misfortune “coincided” with the abrupt abortion of the package, which has generated countless speculations. The truth is that a big sinkhole has suddenly occurred in GAESA and this further stirs up the uncertainty of what may happen in the coming days.”

“On the other hand, the announced Russian rescue has been much ado about nothing. Apparently the Russians do not trust the twisted Cuban legal system and have contained the investment drive that initially seemed to encompass several of the most important sectors of the Cuban economy. However, nothing is moving in the direction of investments.”

“Given the little movement seen so far, it is understandable that the Russian side is being very cautious when it comes to making decisions about million-dollar investments on the Island . The Russian side knows perfectly well that the Cuban regime is not a reliable partner in economic terms. On the other hand, it has realized the precariousness of the Cuban model and the primitive mentality when doing business on the part of the Cuban nomenclature. In that sense, the old and obsolete Cuban economic model does not fit with the Russian model. This disparity does not allow for faster progress in the negotiations. That is why everything remains speculation and promises that do not seem to be fulfilled. In reality, the true rapprochement has been on the military geopolitical level, in the game of the new Cold War unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and proven in practice with the support that the Cuban regime has given to Russia by sending mercenaries. Cubans to war and making Cuban territory available to receive visits from Russian bombers and submarines carrying nuclear weapons.”

“Very little has happened, however, in the economic and commercial sphere. A company has been created in Mariel for the storage and distribution of merchandise, but so far nothing moves in that warehouse. Russian banks have been connected with Cuban banks to allow the use of Russian cards on the Island. The most significant thing has been the increase in the number of flights from Russia to Cuba, which has meant an increase in Russian tourism by 3%. compared to the previous year. There have been approaches to explore investments in the energy sector, but nothing concrete so far. Not even Russian oil reaches Cuba anymore . Outside of that, from a commercial point of view nothing significant has transpired.”

“The current situation in the country is extremely critical. Without a doubt, the current crisis far exceeds that of the Special Period, at the beginning of the 90s. This is a multi-systemic crisis for which the Government has not yet found a way out. The incompetence of the ruling leadership that holds power, added to the lack of existing leadership in the country, the state of bankruptcy in which finances find themselves, the deterioration of the main industries, the 75% decrease in the income of the economy compared to 15 years ago, have buried all hope in Cubans for a solution to this crisis. As a consequence, more than 80% of the Cuban population today lives in poverty.”

“At a time when GAESA, the oligarchic octopus that controls 95% of the finances and more than 70% of the main sectors of the country’s economy, is collapsing internally and the Russian financial bailout evaporates, everything indicates that the country It is heading towards total collapse. Faced with this reality, the Cuban people must understand that the sudden abortion of the package was a desperate action to avoid an imminent large-scale social outbreak, which would surely be joined by dissatisfied partisan militants and a large number of dissatisfied military personnel. Something very different from what happened on July 11, 2021.”

“The fear that the ruling leadership has of the people’s anger is evident . The nonagenarian dictator is very clear and knows that, given the current circumstances, the probability that the system will break down before his own death is real. That is why he has launched a plan B, removing ministers to try to clean up the face of the Government. However, the Cuban people no longer swallow this type of makeup as solutions to appease emergencies, which can only be overcome with a change in the system.”

“Meanwhile, the uncertainty of what may happen on the Island in the coming days increases to the extent that blackouts, shortages of fuel, food and medicine, as well as inflation, continue to increase.”

“Not one, but several black swans flutter over the sky of the dying revolution, at a time when the internal fissures within the ranks of power are increasing and putting the Palace oligarchs in maximum tension. The Cuban people and the living forces of society must be alert to events that may occur at any moment. When the river sounds it is because it brings stones.”

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[1] Emilio Morales, Biography, Linkedin.

[2] Morales, Why is the Cuban regime aborting the package with such urgency?, Diario de Cuba (Feb. 17, 2024).

[3] “Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is a Cuban military-controlled umbrella enterprise with interests in the tourism, financial investment, import/export, and remittance sectors of Cuba’s economy. GAESA’s portfolio includes businesses incorporated in Panama to bypass CACR-related restrictions.” (U.S.Treasury Dept., Press Release: Treasury Identifies Cuban State-Owned Businesses for Sanctions Evasion (Dec. 21, 2020).)

Two U.S. Congress Officials Object to O’Grady’s Defense of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism

U.S. Representative Jim McGovern (Dem., Mass.) and U.S. Senator Peter Welch (Dem., VT) jointly voice their objection to Mary Anastasi O’Grady’s defense of the U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism because, they argue, she presented no evidence for that action.[1]

Yes, McGovern and Welch say, “Cuban officials meet with counterparts in Russia and China, but so do American officials. Alliances with Russia and China, also cited as evidence of support for terrorism, would put half the world on the list. When it comes to spying, Cuba and other countries have had spies in the U.S.”

“Ms. O’Grady’s argument about Cuba’s support for Venezuela’s oppressive dictator might sound convincing, but Venezuela itself isn’t on the [terrorism] list. Cuba harbors some aging American fugitives, but none of them have been accused of international terrorism.”

“To be sure, there are [other] countries that belong on the list. [Two of them are North Korea and Syria.] North Korea threatens to launch nuclear weapons at us. Syria used chemical weapons on its own people and finances regional terrorists. Iran funds the rockets that rain down on Israel.”

“Cuba’s government is repressive; its economy is in shambles. If those were criteria for being on the list, it would be a mile long. It’s fine to criticize Cuba, but let’s be honest about who the real terrorists are. A policy of constructive engagement with Cuba might lead to more democracy. Wrongly labeling it as a sponsor of international terrorism only furthers a broken status quo.”

Conclusion

This blog has repeatedly and consistently argued that the U.S. designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism is unjustified. [2]

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[1] Compare McGovern & Welch, Cuba Is No Sponsor of International Terrorism, W.S.J. (Jan. 31, 2024), wit O’Grady, Why Cuba Belongs on the Terrorism List. W.S.J. (Jan. 21, 2024),

[2] E.g., Cuba Still on List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, dwkcommentaries.com (Dec. 1, 2023); U.S. Senators and Representatives Demand Ending of U.S. Designation of Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 12, 2024);COMMENT: Another Congressman Calls for Ending Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism (Jan. 13, 2024).

U.S. House Hearing on Cuban Private Enterprise

On January 18, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs held a hearing that opened with its chair, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Rep., FL), delivering a speech entitled “The Myth of the New Cuban Entrepreneurs: An Analysis of the Biden Administration’s Cuba Policy.”[1]

Salazar said, “according to information she has, the growth of private enterprises in Cuba is a ‘scheme’ by the Cuban government to violate the U.S. embargo and that only the children of Cuban leaders have an easy path to own these businesses.” That comment was echoed by Rep. Mark Green, a Tennessee Republican, saying, “the Cuban military is embedded in every single business, so the concept of a private sector is almost non-existent in the country.”

At the end of the hearing, however, after hearing about the Biden Administration’s position discussed below, Salazar “seemed to have softened her initial stance, telling the State Department officials that Republicans are ‘on the same page.’ Apparently contradicting her early views, she asked, “How can we help this administration really help those small business owners in Cuba that have no contact or connection with the regime to open up a good store if they want or to own a privately owned business? What can we do together?”

The Biden Administration’s Position on Cuban Private Enterprise

Eric Jacobstein, deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs, testified at the hearing, “In an acute twist of irony, the island’s communist government must now rely on private enterprise to provide food and basic services for its people. We believe the organic expansion of the private sector on the island – led by the Cuban people themselves and not by any foreign government – is an opportunity that should not be wasted. Above all, we must encourage the freedom of Cuban citizens to define their economic future. Failing to engage and support Cuba’s private sector would leave space for Russia and the [People’s Republic of China] to shape the direction of the Cuban economy. We must not allow this to happen.”

Jacobstein added, “We believe the organic expansion of the private sector on the island – led by the Cuban people themselves and not by any foreign government – is an opportunity that should not be wasted. Above all, we must encourage the freedom of Cuban citizens to define their economic future. Failing to engage and support Cuba’s private sector would leave space for Russia and the [People’s Republic of China] to shape the direction of the Cuban economy. We must not allow this to happen.” Moreover, “the private businesses give some young Cubans reasons to stay on the island despite the challenges. . . . In an acute twist of irony, the island’s communist government must now rely on private enterprise to provide food and basic services for its people,”

Enrique Roig, the deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, said that “the Biden administration is not solely focused on supporting independent private entrepreneurs but also on improving the human-rights situation on the island. In particular, the administration has pushed for the release of about 1,000 political prisoners.”

Rep. Joaquin Castro (Dem, TX), the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee, said, the U.S. should support Cuban entrepreneurial efforts, not stifle them.” He added, “Our policies of the last 60 years have not resulted in the changes we would like to see; in some cases, they have even emboldened the Cuban government and strengthened their relationship with key adversaries like China and Russia. The United States can both recognize the threat that the Cuban regime poses to regional and national security while also engaging on key priorities and supporting the Cuban people’s efforts to further their own democratic aspirations.” This includes embracing “former President Barack Obama’s engagement policies, including removing Cuba from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism,” calling it ‘a baseless, extremely harmful designation.’

California Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove said that the denial that the Cuban private sector truly exists was a “conspiracy theory.”

Other Comments on Cuban Private Enterprises

Before the hearing, John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a Washington-based organization tracking business with Cuba, wrote in the Cubatrade blog, “The hearing premise is established on a falsehood” and that it is “wrong” to define those who have created and manage the private enterprises “as participants in a myth, as dupes of the government … rather than instruments of change. [The Cuban government] “does not embrace the re-emerging private sector. It’s tolerated. That should not mean the United States Congress should dismiss it. Or worse, work against it. “

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[1] Torres, Republicans and Democrats in Congress clash over the existence of the private sector in Cuba, Miami Herald (Jan. 18, 2024),

U.S. Accuses Cuba of Attempted Interference in U.S. Elections in 2022

On December 18, 2023, the U.S. intelligence community released a redacted report that claimed the Cuban government conducted influence operations in the United States “aimed at denigrating specific U.S. candidates in Florida” during the 2022 midterm elections and that “Cuban officials worked to build relationships with members of the American media who held critical views of Havana’s critics in Congress, and that a network of social media accounts ‘almost certainly covertly tied’ to Cuba ‘amplified derogatory content’ on U.S. politicians viewed as hostile to the Cuban state.” In addition, the report said. “The Cuban government sought to influence perceptions of politicians belonging to both major U.S. political parties” and “Public Cuban government statements indicate that Havana views Cuban-Americans in Miami as having an outsized influence on U.S. policy in Cuba.”[1]

However, this declassified report “does not name any specific individuals who were targeted, and much of the report’s section on Cuba’s activities are redacted. The assessment also does not say how effective Havana’s influence campaign was on Florida’s elections” although it did say that Cuba’s efforts were “smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted” than the other three countries that were mentioned (Russia, China and Iran).

After the release of this report, an unnamed White House official referred a reporter to the intelligence community for comment on the report and to the State Department and Treasury Department on whether the U.S. plans any retaliatory response to Cuba’s election meddling.[2]

This was an insufficient response according to several Florida politicians.

Senator Marco Rubio said, “It should not be a surprise to anyone that the Cuban regime attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections, though such ‘participation’ in our democratic process is particularly ironic given the regime’s disdain for any semblance of democracy at home. The Biden administration must immediately condemn these actions, make clear they will not be tolerated, and expel Cuban diplomats from U.S. soil. Continued failure to treat Cuba like the tyrannical spying regime that it is only emboldens it.”

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, R-Miami, said, “this blatant interference in American elections must not be permitted and must be met by an immediate response from the United States government. The Cuban regime seeks to topple their enemies and plant their allies and agents in positions of power in the United States. South Florida politicians who oppose the regime are being attacked through the communist propaganda their mouthpieces spread.”

U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez said during a press conference that he believes he, Salazar and Miami’s other Republican congressman, Mario Diaz-Balart, were targeted, though he said he had not been told that directly. All three are Cuban Americans. “They redacted a whole bunch but you can infer from what you can see who exactly it was that they were talking about.”

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[1] U.S. National Intelligence Council, Foreign Threats to the 2022 US Elections, Declassified (12/23/23); Wilner, U.S. intelligence finds Cuba tried to influence Florida races during 2022 elections, Miami Herald (Dec. 19, 2023).

[2] Wilner, White House says it will not tolerate Cuban efforts to influence U.S. elections, Miami Herald (Dec.20, 2023).

Migrants from All Over Flocking to U.S.

For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, arrests at the U.S. Southwest border of migrants from China, India, Mauritania, Senegal, Russia and other distant countries tripled to 214,000. This is a special challenge for the U.S. because deporting them is “time-consuming, expensive and sometimes not possible.” As a result, the U.S. is actively working on obtaining agreements for removal of such immigrants with such countries.[1]

In Mexico an international smuggling ring works with a network of other smugglers handling migrants from Bangladesh, Yemen, Pakistan, Eritrea, India, Uzbekistan, Egypt and India.

For the second year in a row total arrests at the U.S. southern border surpassed two million, almost 90% of whom are from Latin America and the Caribbean.

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[1] Perez, Migrants Are Flocking to the U.S. From All Over the Globe, W.S.J. (Nov. 4, 2023).

More Details on Cuba’s Fuel Crisis

Jorge Pinon, the principal researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas, has provided the following additional details about Cuba’s current fuel crisis.[1]

“Cuba does not have money to buy [fuel] in international markets and the suppliers with which it had commitments [Venezuela, Mexico and Rosneft of Russia] are not fulfilling them.”

In June 2022 Russia announced an agreement for Rosneft annually to supply Cuba with 1.64 million tons of oil and derived products, and this May Rosneft delivered an estimated 800,000 barrels, but that flow has stopped. Rosneft apparently is waiting for a Cuba-Russia intergovernmental agreement to guarantee payment for the market value of these shipments because Rosneft does not want the Cuban debt with a Russian guaranty to appear in its financial reports.

The Mexican supplier (Pemex) over the last decade has decreased its crude oil production every year over the last decade and has the highest debt ($110.5 billion) of any major oil company. And the Mexican government if facing its largest fiscal deficit in more than three decades and is studying the possibility of selling Pemex.

Venezuela’s state-owned oil company (PDVSA) has had problems producing enough oil for its own domestic needs, thus reducing what it can export. For this year (through August) it has exported 449 million barrels in fluctuating amounts to Cuba.

Cuba itself produces about 40,000 barrels of oil per day, but needs another 100,000 per day to meet demand, which Venezuela cannot itself provide. In addition, Cuba’s national electrical system suffers from lack of maintenance.

“The new Cuban energy crisis is so delicate that any adverse event on the island (the breakdown of a thermoelectric plant; a hurricane; a fire in a petrochemical facility) or abroad (increase in oil prices, a new trade war or armed confrontation) could complicate it to extremes.”

“Any way you look at it, any solution will take time and money. Havana has neither one nor the other. And it is clear that the [Cuban] Communist Party prefers to ask its governed to sacrifice themselves rather than begin to solve forever a problem that further compromises the future of the island and that of the group in power.”

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[1] Reyes, The truth that the Government of Cuba will not tell about the new fuel crisis, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 29, 2023),

Elaboration of International and Cuban Law Against Cubans Fighting for Russia Against Ukraine

Previous posts have discussed whether Cubans who fight for Russia against Ukraine are violating Cuban law.[1]

A recent article clearly looks at the published facts and the relevant international and Cuban law and concludes that the Cuban Government and the individual Cubans participating in that war are violating international and Cuban law.[2] Here are the points in that legal analysis:

International Law:

“On December 4, 1989, the UN General Assembly approved the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries. Unlike other international treaties, in this case there was no signature or ratification process. All member states of the organization [including Cuba] are obliged to comply with it.”
“In accordance with this international treaty, States parties undertake not to resort to the recruitment, use, financing or training of mercenaries, and to prohibit such activities.”
Furthermore, under this treaty, “States have the duty to extradite or prosecute mercenaries found in their territory, regardless of whether the crime was committed there or elsewhere, as well as to denounce and collaborate in the justice processes that have been carried out to continue against mercenarism.”
“According to [the treaty’s] articles 4, 5 and 6 and others, States Parties that do not cooperate in the prevention of crimesor fail to take all measures to prevent them from being committed in their respective territories will be complicit in mercenarism.”

Cuban Law:

“Article 8 of the Cuban Constitution says that everything prescribed in the international treaties in force for the Republic of Cuba will be part of the internal legal system, which also obliges the Cuban State to respect the [above] convention.”
“The [Cuban] Penal Code approved in May 2022 and put into force in December punishes those who commit the crime of mercenarism with sentences of ten to 30 years of deprivation of liberty or the death penalty.”
“Article 135 of the Cuban Penal Code defines a mercenary as “any person who, in order to obtain the payment of a salary or other type of remuneration or personal benefit,joins military formations, or private military companies, wholly or partially integrated by individuals who are not citizens of the State in whose territory they propose to act.”

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[1] See, e.g., these posts to dwkcommentaries.com: Cuban Criminal Prosecution of “Trafficking Network” for Recruiting Cubans for Russian Armed Forces (Sept. 7, 2023); Cuba Arrests 17 Linked to Russian Trafficking Network Recruiting Cubans for War in Ukraine (Sept. 8. 2023); COMMENT: Moscow Denies It Recruits Cubans for Ukraine War (Sept. 9, 2023); Conflicting News About Cubans Fighting for Russia Against Ukraine (Sept. 12, 2023); More Conflicting News About Cubans Fighting for Russia Against Ukraine While U.S. Continues Anti-Cuban Policies (Sept. 16, 2023);Cuban Foreign Minister: Cubans May Not Legally Fight in Foreign Wars (Sept. 17, 2023);More Details on Cubans Fighting for Russia in Ukraine (Sept. 19, 2023).

[2] Mirabal, Cuban laws force the regime to imprison mercenaries recruited for Russia’s war against Ukraine, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 22, 2023).

At U.N., Cuban President Says Nothing About Russia and Ukraine While Condemning U.S. Sanctions

On September 19, Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, addressed the U.N. General Assembly. He said, ““For 60 years Cuba has suffered a suffocating economic blockade,” an “inhumane policy” he blamed for the shortages of food and medicines on the island. He also said Cuba was not a national security threat to the U.S, and that the American government lied when it concluded that Cuba sponsors terrorism.[1]

The President, however, did not mention that Cuban authorities have made record purchases of food and agricultural products from the U.S. since 2020.

The President also said nothing about Russia’s war against Ukraine and the issue of Cubans fighting for Russia in that war. Instead, Granma (the official body of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba) published an article about the U.S. announcing new sanctions against more than 150 companies that trade with Russia “under the pretext of the conflict in Ukraine.”[2]

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[1] Torres, At U.N., Cuba’s leader hammers U.S.’s ‘cruel policies’, but stays silent on Russia, Miami Herald (Sept. 19, 2023); Diaz-Canel attacks the US at the UN while waiting for dollars for his MSMEs, Diario de Cuba (Sept. 19, 2023);[Diaz-Canel Speech at U.N.] It will always be an honor to fight for justice (+Video), Granma (Sept. 19, 2023); Editorial, the global sanctioner attacks those who cooperate with Russia, Granma (Sept. 19, 2023).

[2] US sanctions more than 150 technology companies that trade with Russia, Granma (Sept. 18, 2023).