Cuba is facing economic challenges. First, certain economists are projecting difficult economic times for 2017.[1] Second, ordinary Cubans already are facing difficulties finding basic foodstuffs.[2]
Carmelo Mesa-Lago, an economist and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh, said, “The short-term prospects are not good.” If in 2015 Cuban GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew 4.4%, “projections [for 2016] are of stagnation or slight decline, and a far greater fall next year.”
He said the economic reforms initiated by Raúl Castro are positive, but that they are “extremely slow. We are now in 2016, nine years since reforms began in 2007, and there have been tangible effects on the economy,” but there is a “need to find quick and accurate solutions . . . [to] accelerate the pace of the key changes.” For example, Mesa-Largo said, the development of the non-state sector “authorized only . . . generally unskilled jobs, [with] extremely low productivity.”
The other economist, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, stated the Cuban economy will only grow an estimated 0.4% in 2016 and decline -2.0% in 2017. “Cuba must make major changes in its economy to rapidly overcome its structural problems in 2017.” He believes it is necessary for Cuba to develop small and medium enterprises, increase wages, allow foreign investment and accept portfolio investments (with the issuance of fixed income securities (bonds) and equity (shares)).”
On a personal level, ordinary Cubans have great difficulty in finding food to eat, due in part to increased competition for food supplies to feed the increasing number of foreign tourists who can pay more for food.
A U.S. journalist reports that the tourists’ “surging demand for food has caused] ripple effects. . . .Tourists are quite literally eating Cuba’s lunch. . . . [G]oods that Cubans have long relied on are going to well-heeled tourists and the hundreds of private restaurants that cater to them, leading to soaring prices and empty shelves. . . . Without supplies to match the increased appetite, some foods have become so expensive that even basic staples are becoming unaffordable for regular Cubans. . . . Rising prices for staples like onions and peppers, or for modest luxuries like pineapples and limes, have left many unable to afford them. Beer and soda can be hard to find, often snapped up in bulk by restaurants.”
To meet this immediate need for more food in Cuba, this blog has proposed that Cuba impose a requirement that all arriving airlines and cruise ships deliver to the Cuban government set quantities of certain foodstuffs.
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[1] The economic challenges of the island by 2017 according to two experts, Diario de Cuba (Dec. 13, 2016)
[2] Ahmed, Cuba’s Sure in Tourism Keeps Food Off Residents’ Plates, N.Y. Times (Dec. 8, 2016); Severson, For Cuban Home Cooks, Ingenuity and Luck Are Key Ingredients, N.Y. Times (May 17, 2016).