President Trump continues to spout with expensive ways to implement at least some of his campaign promises. He has not yet submitted a proposed budget for the federal government that would reveal whether and how the competing needs for federal expenditures would be reconciled.
So far, however, Trump continues to utter macroeconomic idiocies. Here are a few.
First, he urges unspecified huge increases in military spending.
Second, Trump continues to call for the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump initially said it would cost $8 billion and subsequently upped his figure to $10 to $12 billion. Last October, however, the MIT Technology Review put the real figure at $27 to $40 billion. (Editorial, The Costs of Mt. Trump’s Dragnet, N.Y. Times (Feb. 26, 2017.)
Second, Trump has called for expansion of U.S. arrests and deportation of undocumented aliens. Already such efforts annually cost over $19 billion, and the American Action Forum recently estimated that expelling all unauthorized immigrants and keeping them out would cost $400 to $600 billion. (Iibid.)
Moreover, says that Forum, such drastic actions would reduce the U.S. GDP by $1 trillion. “Farms and restaurants, hotels, manufacturers, retail businesses–all sectors of the [U.S.] economy benefit directly or indirectly from immigrant labor.” In addition, they pay income, property and sales taxes and make financial contributions to our Social Security Administration while generally not collecting any Social Security benefits. That Administration estimates that such contributions annually total $13 billion while only getting back $1 billion. (Ibid.)
Another glaring socio-economic idiocy of Trump’s suggested massive increase of deportations of unauthorized immigrants is its failure to recognize obvious U.S. demografic trends. The U.S. has low birth rates and aging and declining population in many parts of the country, especially in rural areas. Immigrants are needed in those areas to care for older citizens in their own homes or in assisted-living centers of various kinds while foreign-born primary-care physicians already are a major provider of medical care. (E.g., Karl, Minnesota used to attract more people from other states than it lost to them. Now it’s the opposite. What happened!, Minn. Post (Feb. 24, 2017).)
Third, the recent heavy rains in Northern California and the threatened collapse of the Oroville Dam have highlighted the dangerous condition of many dams and other important infrastructure systems throughout the U.S. and the need to repair, modify and replace many such structures. An expert pointed out, “Most of the dams in the [U.S.] are over 50 years old” and desperately need such work. (E.g., Assoc. Press, Rural California Levees Beseiged by Pounding Wet Winter, N.Y. Times (Feb. 24, 2017); Griggs, Aeschylus & Almukhtar, America’s Aging Dams Are in Need of Repair, N.Y. Times (Feb. 23, 2017).) An objective analysis of competing demands for federal funds should put this demand at the top of the list.
Fourth, Trump also has called for reduced taxes and unspecified changes to health care insurance
Conclusion
From a macroeconomic perspective an argument could be made for a stimulative federal budget with expenditures exceeding revenues. But the Trump proposals to date show no sign of confronting the questions of how much is too much.
There are many reasons to oppose Trump’s trumpeting the proposed U.S.-Mexico wall and expansion of arrests and deportations of undocumented foreigners: human rights, human decency and promoting positive relations with neighboring countries. They deservedly have received much attention. Yet another reason is their enormous cost.
